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Monday, January 14, 2008

Read and React: Which Package?

By Dustin Shires

In regards to Erik Bedard, the Mariners had reportedly offered:
Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and George Sherrill

The Orioles want either of these:
Adam Jones, Carlos Triunfel, George Sherrill
or
Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, George Sherrill

Earlier reports speculated that the asking price was:
Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Carlos Triunfel, Chris Tillman

I'll start out and say that I am 100% for the Adam Jones, Carlos Triunfel, and George Sherrill deal. My reasoning? I'm not sold on Adam Jones, and I never have been. George Sherrill is an aging left handed reliever, and we have plenty of youth and some lefties in our bullpen still. Those players are going to develop as they get more time. The kicker for me is Carlos Triunfel.

Now, I'm not 100% sold on Morrow becoming a great starter, but he's MLB ready now. Triunfel won't be ready for the MLB until at least 2010, maybe 2011. Triunfel also has to change positions, since Betancourt is our shortstop now and the front office is in love with him. You can make the case that Triunfel won't be ready until Betancourt is a free agent, but honestly, I don't see Betancourt getting any worse in the next four years. I would rather keep the player that is going to help the big club, and is more proven. Triunfel has plenty of time to underdevelop. The kid can't even buy smokes yet, so he's got a ways to go.

Which deal would you rather see happen and why? (Please tell if you're an Orioles fan or a Mariners fan, or neither)

17 comments:

Jon Shields said...

I have been on both sides of the fence in regards to every detail of the Erik Bedard rumors.

I'm at the point where i'd like to see a trade happen, and either deal would be alright. It is giving up a lot, but the Mariners will be keeping enough young talent to sustain them for the coming years.

Remember, Seattle does not have to rely on their up-and-comers the way Tampa Bay has, but they need to develop just a few to compliment the veterans (think Red Sox).

We could trade Triunfel and have Morrow, Wlad and Clement around for the next decade, and there will be others developing. Triunfel may be great, but sometimes trades like this have to happen.

The Red Sox traded away Hanley Ramirez in a package from Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.. I doubt any of them are regretting it.

Triunfel or Morrow, it doesn't really matter to me. I would love to keep both, but this deal is probably going to happen and it's too late for everyone's "don't trade jones" arguements. Morrow could help us next season, but Triunfel could be great. It's a toss up.

topher said...

Mariner fan here

I personally would rather see Morrow go, But only slightly because of the question of his age. I don't agree with your argument that Betancourt could block him from the majors. While I do believe Betancourt is are SS and will continue to be for a while, I think Triunfel could easily be moved to 3B. By the time he gets to the majors he should be considerable larger and would probably fit better into that spot, and remember he's only 17, so switching him to third should be no big deal.

This would also help the mariners in two years when Beltre's contract is up.

Here's a question, whats harder to find, a ligit bat at third base with good D or a number two or three starter, which is what morrow is projected to be?

Jon Shields said...

Topher,

Triunfel will be moved. Not because Betancourt is blocking him, but because he defense is awful..

He will most likely be moved to third base or right field. I'd like to see him in Right, where his cannon can be displayed the way Ichiro and Jose Guillen did. Triunfel is supposed to have the best arm in the entire system, pitchers included :]

Rob T. said...

i remember reading a keith law chat and he thinks triunfel will be the 3rd baseman when beltre's contract runs out if they dont resign him. Ad for the trade if i had to choose i would pick for morrow to be traded because even though he would be the most helpful of the two right now, one thing the mariners have is a lot of good pitching prospects like tillman who is supposed to be just as good if not better than morrow along with aumont and butler and some other good mid level prospects

topher said...

His D is horrible now, but he should only be a junior in high school. I agree that he will be moved to third and not because Betancourt, but because he will be a better fit there. Thats the first I've heared of him playing right, but it dosen't sound like a bad idea.

Nick said...

I would prefer the Jones/Triunfel/Sherril deal by far. Above all I just do not want to give up Morrow. Sherril might hurt a little but we have plenty of good young releivers to pick up the slack. As for Triunfel he is only 17 and we would have to wait on him quite a bit... and his defense concerns me. And I figure we are going to be giving up Jones no matter what if we actually want a chance at landing Bedard.

Dustin Shires said...

Another argument I left out was that Beltre is playing well enough to get a new contract. If you move him to right, that moves Balentien from right to left. Balentien is a natural right fielder. I don't know enough about Triunfel to give a solid opinion though. Who knows, I could be wrong...

Anonymous said...

NW Oriole Fan.... I would rather see the Birds get Clement, regardless of the fact that they have Weiters down on the Farm getting ready. I think he is an impact bat, and the Orioles have depth in the minors in the pitching department, but not amongst position players. Morrow is good but not special. All I know of triunfel is how highly regarded he is amongst Mariner fans.

jp17 said...

Before I make any Bedard deal involving Adam Jones, I'm going to need Luke Scott included in the deal. There isn't much left on the free agent market to fill the hole, and I'm not ready to give the role back to Reed. I think Balentien needs another year in the minors.

So for Bedard/Scott I'd offer Jones, Sherrill, Morrow, and Triunfel.

Personally I like Tillman over Morrow, even if Tillman is farther away from helping the club. I like his upside better.

I really hate to lose Triunfel, but being so young there is more of a risk involved in his development.

If this trade doesn't get it done I might offer up some lesser prospects (Michael Saunders, Robert Rohrbaugh, Rob Johnson) but wouldn't be adding on any of the other top guys.

Bedard alone won't make us serious contenders.

Dustin Shires said...

JP17 -

Balentien put up equally impressive numbers in AAA as Jones did. What tells you Jones is ready for the big time, but Balentien isn't?

Brian said...

I'd prefer Jones/Sherrill/Trunfiel...I think Beltre has played well enough to get another 3 or 4 year contract with the Mariners after his current contract runs out and I don't see Trunfiel being a good leftfielder (Balentien should stay in right)...At such a young age Trunfiel isn't nearly as valuable as Morrow is because Morrow can contribute to the big club right now...The question might be how we use Morrow next year if we really want him to be a starter in the future but I think we can deal with that problem if it means we have 6 legitimate starters and a chance to compete next year...Having a starter in ready in the wait after Washburn's contract runs out is much more valuable to our team than having Trunfiel waiting down in the minors ready to make in impact in 2010 or 2011...

jp17 said...

dustin

Jones was in his second year in AAA and improved his numbers at a younger age. Jones also slugged nearly 80 points higher than Balentien.

Jones also had a more consistent year. Wlad tailed off at the end of the year, though he did have a hand injury I believe.

I also think that Jones' defensive value helps the M's more now than Balentien, even if playing in a corner spot.

Jones has increased his power (as evidenced by his IsoP) at each level while maintaining his contact rate.

Wladimir's had spurts and took a big step forward, but I think he needs another year to make it legitimate. He's got the option so why not use it.

His ability to limit his K's while drawing some walks was a big step forward, and I'd like to see him hit for a bit more power.

Dustin Shires said...

Fair enough. While I agree that he could use that other year in AAA, I think if Jones is traded and nobody is signed, we need him to step into that role. No questions asked.

ellis carver said...

O's fan here.

Of the trades you listed here (not including the Jones, Sherrill, Triunfel and Tillman deal), I would probably go with the order you have them listed.

Jones, Clement and Sherrill. I would then hope that we could trade Ramon Hernandez for something, anything. Also, Sherrill could be real valuable at the trade deadline. If we don't trade Ramon Hernandez we could possibly flip Clement for MLB ready SS prospect to fill our void there as well. Matt Weiters is supposed to be a super stud, but we should probably hold on to Clement until Weiters actually gets some game under his belt that aren't Hawaiian Winter League.

I also salivate at the prospect of Triunfel as well, and hell I like Morrow too. All in all I think this O's fan will be happy if a deal goes down.

Some of this speculation may hinge on what happens with Brian Roberts or vice versa. If we do happen to land Matt Murton from the Cubs then perhaps he could be flipped to the M's and the package could be expanded?

we'll see.

Jon Shields said...

As far as Wlad and a starting role goes, I would give him at least a half season more at AAA, letting Mike Morse or Jeremy Reed hold down the fort until then.

Ideally the Mariners would sign Shannon Stewart or Luis Gonzalez to a one year contract.

Edgar for Mayor said...

Morrow, Jones Sherrill

Actually I would prefer none. But if I had to pick...that one.

jp17 said...

Shannon Stewart is a Type B free agent. Not sure if he's worth it. Gonzalez would be pretty bad in the field, but at least is a LH bat.

Kenny Lofton is out there, and I've thought about a Reed and Kevin Mench platoon.

If Jones is traded there really aren't any good options.