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Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Read and React: Bedard Predictions

posted by Jon, Patrick and Dustin

Dustin Shires: Throughout all this madness, nothing seems certain anymore.

  • Jones' injury
  • Angelos could nix the trade
  • Bedard seeking Orioles extension
  • Jones' talking could have hindered the talking between clubs

There could be other unknown factors. Simply put, no one has concrete answers, but most of the baseball world thinks this trade is going to happen. I too have taken this stance.

I believe that the Seattle offer is too lucrative for the Orioles to turn down. These type of deals are the ones that Baltimore needs to make in order to avoid another decade of irrelevance. Adam Jones, whether you think he'll be great or not, is the type of player you want to center your rebuilding efforts around.

Do I believe that he'll live up to the hype and fulfill his potential as a Mariner? Absolutely not.

The Orioles are willing to trade their ace and a Cy Young hopeful to find out how good Jones will be. They will also be getting one of the most reliable relievers in the MLB in George Sherrill, a potential front of the rotation pitcher in Chris Tillman, along with unknown 4th and/or 5th prospects.

This deal is a must for the rebuilding Orioles, and the Mariners need this deal to go down in order to acquire a proven ace. Bedard has proven he can carry the title of ace, and can win ball games. He could win on a terrible Orioles team, so just think about how good he can be in Safeco (the SafeCave), and with offensive and defensive upgrades. Bedard can be a Cy Young pitcher on the Mariners, assuming he goes through the year healthy.

As I have stated before, I do not believe Jones will be the player USS Mariner thinks he will be, and do not see him as the "savior of the franchise." Sherrill, I believe, came into his own way too late, and is already fairly advanced as far as the lifespan of relief pitchers go. Yes, I know he's relatively new to the MLB, but age is age. We have no idea how good Tillman will be, because he is two or three years away from scratching the surface of the MLB.

To sum it up, I believe this deal is too good for either side to pass up. Both teams have gotten too far into it. The deal is 99% done. All that is needed is the necessary "stamp of approval" from Angelos and Bedard is a Mariner. I believe that Erik Bedard will be pitching for Seattle on Opening Day.

Patrick Whealton: At this point in time, we are all aware of the tumult over the last few days about a possible trade to bring Erik Bedard to Seattle. While many reporters as well as my fellow bloggers here at BBT believe that a deal will be finalized and announced by the end of this week, I have something that I must admit to you. Since the beginning of the off-season, I’ve had the gut feeling that Erik Bedard will be the Orioles starter on opening day 2008.

Despite the developments this week, my gut feeling has not changed. Of course, I hope that I am wrong, but new evidence seems to suggest that the deal that was supposedly done just a couple days ago continues to fall apart at the seams. Since the beginning of the week, we have, in essence, seen a trade work backwards from the point where it was completed, onto finalizing the players involved, onto having the general framework of the deal in question by O’s team owner Peter Angelos, and now finally to the point where the Orioles will explore their other possibilities. This process is completely backwards and to think that it will magically work itself out in a day or two, while possible, seems a little unrealistic to me.

So what other possibilities do the Orioles have? Well, it seems as if other teams including the Reds and possibly the Indians may be back in on the Bedard talks. "General Manager" Andy MacPhail said the other day that other teams are now “chiming in.” However, Bedard to any other team besides the Mariners seems out of the question at this point, especially with the Reds refusing to give up prospect Jay Bruce.

Apparently, there is now another option on the table that was previously didn’t seem to be viable; for the Orioles to sign Bedard to an extension. In the past, the Orioles were under the impression that Bedard and his agent only wanted to discuss contract extensions on a year-by-year basis. Now, based on recent quotes by Erik Bedard, it looks like he is willing to discuss a long-term deal with the club. This development, coupled with the fact that Peter Angelos loves Bedard because he puts butts in seats at Camden Yards, points towards a contract extension or at least a few more roadblocks before a deal with the Mariners is made.

Once again, I am completely for a trade for Bedard and I really hope that it happens, but the window for being able to do that may have just closed.

Jon Shields: I was going to write a long entry like Dustin and Patrick, but I don't feel it's necessary at this point. We've been reporting mostly everything to you, so it's down to gut feelings.

This deal was done. Adam Jones said he was traded to Baltimore. The deal was done, and then there was some sort of wrinkle that needed to be ironed out. That may have been a quick check to see if Erik Bedard could be re-signed, it could have been Baltimore trying to squeeze out some more talent from Seattle, it could have been anything. I don't think there was anything so significant that took us back to square one.

There are too many people with too many sources that are way too confident that this will happen sooner than later. Pair that with anyone who's anyone around baseball saying this deal needs to get done for the Orioles to ever become relevant again, and how can you dispute it?

This deal is announced as early as Thursday morning, late as Monday afternoon. I don't see this falling apart.


Question to the readers: Will this deal go through? If so, when? If not, why not?

3 comments:

ellis carver said...

Fellas,

I think it happens, but I have no idea when. I'm having trouble with the Bedard extension talks. Supposedly, when McPhail was brought in it was because Angelos had finally seen the light (after 10 straight losing seasons - the Orioles really do have a great tradition, it's all been really sad) and was going to let McPhail do his job.

McPhail, it seemed, months ago had resigned himself to the fact that Bedard needed to be traded and not extended. Well, if the O's really are talking about an extension with Bedard then that tells me that Agelos must be involved. I don't know why McPhail would have changed his mind and re-opened talks with Bedard if not for a request by his boss.

This is the only thing that scares me a bit about the deal not getting done because I'm at the point now where I don't even want to extend Bedard, I want to cash him in.

Again though, I think the trade happens. I don't think the O's will want to pay what Bedard will command. Ever since Scotty Erickson got a 5 year deal and then dropped off the cliff, Angelos has refused to go more than 3 years for a pitcher. He might could consider breaking his own rule for the home grown Bedard, but I'm not sure. But, if Angelos himself is the one handleing the negotiations it just might happen. In the past when Angelos has personally handled negotiations he's actually ended up over paying (see Albert Belle and most recently Melvin Mora). Although, he couldn't come to an agreement with the homegrown Mike Mussina.

I'm talking in circles now. I'll end this comment the way I have most of mine here, I guess we have to keep waiting...

17tomlampkin said...

good post guys, really interesting stuff. i feel that all of these talks questioning the deal started right when jones leaked that a deal was going down. they could just be distractions created by both sides of the deal to keep the media and fans guessing while they hammer out the last few details of the trade. on the other hand, angelos has a history of being a just god awful gm, especially during big trades such as this. in the end, i think that the m's offer is way too good for the o's to turn down. i think it's better than what the twins got for santana and it would be mind numbing if angelos didn't take it. i think that the deal will be done and all of these rumors are just that: rumors.

17tomlampkin said...

also, i just read that the degenerative hip thing is what albert belle had and had to end his career becuase of in just the second year of his huge contract from the o's. i think that they've got wet feet because of this and that they're overspeculating on something in an x-ray that was very minor or something of the sort.