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Friday, January 18, 2008

Jones is the Hangup?

posted by Jon

Prospect Insider has been single-handedly driving the Adam Jones rumor mill at times this offseason, and they have some new info on their sidebar today.

After exchanging emails with a person connected to the trade discussions between the Baltimore Orioles and the Seattle Mariners, I've learned that maybe the reason a deal has not been consummated is not what we've been led to believe up to this point.

Thus far it's appeared that the Orioles' demand for either Brandon Morrow, Carlos Triunfel or even Chris Tillman to be included may have held a deal up for the past few weeks. But perhaps that's not true, says the source.

"It's Adam Jones. I don't think they (Seattle) are sure about giving him up."

The two clubs are apparently keeping the lines of communication open, but no deal is imminent.

That is pretty surprising to me, but it makes the whole Winter league episode make a little more sense. That brings me to this little blurb by MLBTR:

Maybe the Mariners have been reading blogs again.
Honestly, that wouldn't surprise me one bit. There is not way you pull out of that trade unless you've been listening to biased, whiny fan bloggers crying about it. Bottom line is that Erik Bedard makes this team better than Adam Jones would in 2008 and 2009. You don't need to think beyond that, because we have plenty of youth waiting in the wings.

Everything looks at Jones' power numbers in AAA and thinks he is some sort of god. Anyone else realize that he could strike out 200 times if he doesn't have any lineup protection?

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm beginning to think Churchill is full of it. Who are these connections and why does he have them?

topher said...

I noticed that the M's finally put Silva in the depth chart on their website. I have a few questions about this.

1. Why did it take so long? Usually teams post within a day or so.

2. Could they have been waiting to see if a Bedard trade would go down, to know where to put him in the depth chart?

I dunno

Jon Shields said...

anonymous: while sources can be anyone, i wouldn't ever say he is making stuff up. anyone that works in close proximity to the team develops their own sources. even here at BBT we have some good sources, though he haven't used them much at this point. I believe Churchill does some writing for Seattle P-I, giving him access to Press Credentials unobtainable by the average fan or blogger.

i don't think he has said anything totally off-base. he said it was getting hot, as did Ken Rosenthal, then the Mariners had a change of heart. that's it.

Topher: The M's depth chart isn't important. it is not comparable to NFL depth charts that seem to be updated up to the second. I don't even think the depth chart the M's have online is even accurate during the season.

Scott said...

Biased, whiney bloggers? What is your deal? The USS Mariner and Lookout Landing have provided vast, in-depth statistical analysis comparing the value of the players over their career. Much more than you have on this site. Adam Jones is under club control until 2013, and he'll come cheap. Bedard says he wants to test the market in 2 years. You don't just give up your best prospect for somebody who makes this rotation better for 2 years. Who's going to play outfield for the Mariners? If you stick Wlad in there, you have the worst defensive corner outfielders baseball, and that will hurt us almost the same amount as Bedard will help us. We also can't win if we can't score runs, something Adam Jones will bring to the table, even if it's below expectations. We saw that much from his stint last year.

I don't see how you can call those bloggers, if indeed you are referring to the major 2, biased. I pray to God Jones IS the reason this deal is being held up.

Rob T. said...

if we let one of these bloggers be the gm like they all say they can do a better job then bavasi we would be the worst team in the league every year. Everybody says well we should just sign one of the great free agents next year and we will be fine so why trade for bedard. Well i would be suprised if any of the top pitchers or hitters even reach the free agent market next year as i would say probably 95% of top free agents sign with the team their on before they even hit free agency.

jp17 said...

You know, every single one of those bloggers has said many times that they would be failures as GMs.

This isn't a black and white issue and it seems that some are trying to make it that.

There are many factors in play and none of us really know the particulars.

I think all bloggers want Bedard, they've said this as well, but they don't believe Jones is worth the cost. It's a good argument, and frankly, I think they have made the better case using numbers and history.

It still may be possible to land Bedard without giving up Jones.

If not we can still look to make a trade for lesser talent to shore up the back of the rotation which would still be a big improvement from last year.

Bedard for Jones straight up does not get this team into the playoffs.

Really isn't any need to call other opinions whiny if you don't agree. Both sides have merits and should realize that there is middle ground.

Anonymous said...

why not use your sources?

Rob T. said...

theres not a stat out there that can truly 100% predict if the mariners have a chance at the playoffs. Every year teams make the playoffs that are not predicted to make it at the beginning of the year. The marienrs are also in by far the worst division, we get to play the 2 worst teams in the league more then anybody else so why is the wild card out of the question. The tigers, indians, yankees might be better then us on paper but they have to play a harder schedule then we do.

mama said...

Scott..I agree with you. I think that both sides have made valid arguments and that it could go either way. I am a HUGE Jones fan. He is an awesome person and gamer. I am against giving him up. I know I couldn't be a GM, but I think being a fan and being passionate about baseball and our players is what loving this game is all about.
People can talk about Churchill all they want, but at least he has the guts to post how he REALLY feels and provides valid points to back his opinions. Isn't that what blogging is all about? Why should he give up his sources?? I wouldn't either. These debates have gotten down right nasty. Even though I don't agree with the mud slinging and name calling, it is so cool to see that our fans are smart, baseball savvy, dedicated, die hard fans. Right or wrong, black and white, this issue is not. It is in the really gray area. At this point, all we can do now is hope that we get the deal we want and need, and that just depends on who you ask.

Dustin Shires said...

Scott - USSM uses sabermetrics which they tweak to their advantage. The throw a bunch of shit in a blender and the number comes out in their favor. Anything PRO-Jones they have found it.

Jon Shields said...

back to Churchill and his sources.. you're not supposed to ever give up your sources. a big no-no in journalism.

anyways, obviously i struck a nerve with some of the comments in this post. I wasn't singling out any blog in particular, and i didn't mention Lookout, USSM or PI by name. i didn't have anyone specifically in mind.

thinking back on it, thanks to you guys, I probably shouldn't have put it directly on the blogs. Most of them do, as you say, give valid arguements and are passionate about their sideo f the debate.'

I realized that the blogs weren't really the whiners, but many of the users on the blogs and in forums and other Mariners site. Some people absolutely throw a fit when it comes to Adam Jones. Not you, you guys are phenominal and I think make up one of the better, although smaller, communities around the blogosphere. 99% of you seem to know what you're talking about, and it makes for some good discussions.

I do still believe that, as a GM, you do not pull out of that trade unless you have been persuaded by someone's words.

the blog is mightier than the sword? believe it.

jp17 said...

I can agree with that Jon.

Great points on both sides, and there is no right answer.

It's a risk whether you do or don't.

I just want it to end one way or the other, but I do believe we need to make some sort of moves to shore up the back of the rotation.

Almost all teams end up using more than 5 starters. If you are using guys like Morrow, RRS, Baek, HoRam to start the year then you are going to get deeper down the depth chart as the season goes on.

I'd look for free agents that would sign one year deals, or look to trade.

canadian_rocket17 said...

For the Mariners, and especially Bill Bavasi (GM), it's win now. Unless Bavasi is getting a contract extension for a couple years, then he will likely trade Adam Jones for a player such as Erik Bedard who will help this team for the present. the armchair GM, and the real GM are two entirely different positions. If you were in Bavasi's shoes, you probably wouldn't be jumping for an oppurtunity to trade Jones, or holding him back. It's part of being a GM. There;s more than just the GM that makes the decisions. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a trade or signing of this statue have to be approved by some upper management?

I also have a Mariners blog of my own at tbcmariners.blogspot.com, not that I'm trying to advertise, just trying to get more discussion on the team that matters most to Mariners' fans