Possible Roster Moves to Come

After struggling in pressure situations for most of the season, Eric O'Flaherty was seemingly demoted from the later innings and appeared in what was supposed to be long relief for emergency starter Cha-Seung Baek. O'Flaherty gutted out 2.2 innings, but allowed 6 runs on 8 hits.

I already wrote about how Seattle should start using Ryan Rowland-Smith as the teams LOOGY over O'Flaherty, and now it would make sense that to demote him even further. AAA Tacoma seems to be his next stop. In fact, there has already been a rumor that he has already been sent to the minors in favor of R.A. Dickey; this coming from a commenter over at Geoff Baker's blog that was supposedly in the clubhouse after the game.

Such a move makes perfect sense because Seattle is short a long reliever after Cha-Seung Baek started in place of the hurting Erik Bedard. Having two long relievers on your team isn't the best strategy, and either Baek or Dickey would have to be sent down or waived after the bullpen sorts itself out. With O'Flaherty gone (presumably), Arthur Rhodes seems like the next in line to get a shot in Seattle after Dickey. I don't believe Rhodes is quite ready yet, but he could be up in the next 10 days or so.

Mike Morse is also likely on the move. He hasn't sustained his Spring Training hot streak at the plate and has continually looked like a fool in the outfield. He hurt himself making an awkward diving attempt on a sinking line drive (that most right fielders probably could have caught without diving) and was later removed from the game. Such a move wouldn't happen right away, but after the team runs some test on his shoulder (or whatever it is that ails him) he could find his way onto the 15-day disabled list, likely opening the door for Jeremy Reed. Wlad Balentien is also a possibilty, but the team would have to decide to bench Brad Wilkerson for that to happen, and I believe that Seattle is going to give Wilkerson some more time before such a move happens.

The Morse situation is more speculation than anything at this point, but if Seattle sees an opportunity to get Morse off of the team without losing him I think they'll take it. Such a move could be announced as early as tomorrow, but I wouldn't expect it for at least day or two.

Once again, none of this is official. Let's see how many of these things come true.

Final Roster Decisions Loom; Last Predictions

Well, I think the performances in tonight's ballgame given us a better indication of how the Mariners' Opening Day roster will look.

Yesterday afternoon and this morning there were rumors going around that Rule-5 pick R.A. Dickey was offered back to the Twins. Prospect Insider was the only site with this info, and Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times called Dickey's roster inclusion "a given" as recently as this afternoon. After thinking about it today it boiled down to one question: Why would Seattle pitch Dickey tonight if they were giving him back anyway?

Seattle wanted to see how Dickey's knuckleball looked outside of the Arizona air. I am assuming that they were going to make their final decision on who the long reliever would be based on tonight's appearance. Most of us had a hard time believing Prospect Insider's "report" this morning, and it looks like they are second-guessing themselves as well. Their sidebar now reads:

Watching R.A. Dickey tonight, albeit versus an awful lineup the San Francisco Giants put out there, makes ya think twice about potentially picking Cha Seung Baek over the knuckleballer, eh?

If Baek's durability wasn't a big question mark, I'd prefer him to Dickey. But I think the M's are nuts if they don't trade Baek and keep the 33-year-old.

Dickey pitched brilliantly tonight, tossing 5 scoreless innings of 1 hit ball. His knuckler was dancing and he was mixing it well with his fastball. R.A. Dickey is going to be on this team and their shouldn't be any doubt about it. Cha-Seung Baek pitched great this spring, but Dickey's skillset is more of what manager John McLaren is looking for. Dickey isn't going anywhere.

As for the rest of the bullpen, I think Brandon Morrow's outing helped sort a lot of things out. He came in very wild, especially with his breaking pitches, and loaded the bases with three straight walks. He then opted to repeatedly throw his fastball down the middle to the next three hitters, which amazingly led to a popup, a strikeout and a flyout. He only gave up one run in his inning of work tonight, but that looks awful given the fact that he didn't surrender any hits. Against a better team that may have been a 5 run inning.

Morrow could still make the team, but I think he'll start the year in AAA Tacoma. That would be his first minor league stint since he pitched 7 games in rookie ball and one game in high-A back in 2006.

With that, the Opening Day bullpen will likely include J.J. Putz, Sean Green, Mark Lowe, Eric O'Flaherty, Ryan Rowland-Smith and R.A. Dickey. McLaren could opt to carry deserving long reliever Cha-Seung Baek on the team as well, but it would not improve the team and it would only be to buy some time for Seattle to trade him.

Speaking of trade, I have a hard time believing Seattle can trade him for anything worth while at this point. I'm sure interested teams have read Baek's quotes about opting for free agency rather than reporting to AAA. I'm sure they're also aware of Dickey's performance this spring. Why would a team give up anything worth while for Baek when they can just wait until he's a free agent?

If he goes with the 6-man bullpen, McLaren has five bench spots with two left to fill. Willie Bloomquist, Jaime Burke and Miguel Cairo all have job security, leaving Jeremy Reed, Mike Morse, Charlton Jimerson and Greg Norton as the only position players left in camp without a guaranteed roster spot. I think it's safe to pencil Norton in at this point. McLaren reportedly wants him on the team but his lack of versatility rule him out as a possibility on a 4-man bench. With two spots available McLaren can carry both Norton and an outfield, making Norton's lack of defensive skills obsolete.

Reed should fail to make the roster. McLaren stated a long time ago that he wanted a right-handed outfielder on the bench, something that Reed isn't. I believe that Reed is being showcased for other teams, and that is the only reason he's still on the roster and getting playing time. It's been widely reported that both the Rays and Padres have recently contacted the Mariners about Reed.

So it comes down to Mike Morse versus Charlton Jimerson for the last spot. To many fans Morse seems like the obvious answer. 81% of you think he should make the team, according the poll that is currently running on the right sidebar. He's been hitting a ton this spring, can play four positions, five in a pinch. He seems like a good bench player, right? Not so fast.

Many have reported that McLaren favors Jimerson, and Jimerson is the better option when you consider the position Seattle is trying to fill: fourth outfielder. Morse is a better hitter, but he is atrocious when playing in the outfield. He's a converted infielder with Raul Ibanez range who takes bad routes to fly balls. Jimerson, on the other hand, is a natural outfielder with fantastic range and a good arm. He can play center field, unlike Morse, and would also be Seattle's fastest baserunner off the bench.

The only benefit I see to having Morse on the team is that he would be a better offensive option than Bloomquist and Cairo when it comes to spelling Adrian Beltre and his aching thumb at third. His value at first base is hindered by the potential presence of Norton, who would be a better offensive option should Sexson slump again or get hurt.

There are still tough decisions to be made but as of right now, Friday at 12:06 AM PST, this is the team I expect to see on Opening Day:

Pitchers:
Miguel Batista
Erik Bedard
R.A. Dickey
Sean Green
Felix Hernandez
Mark Lowe
Eric O'Flaherty
J.J. Putz
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Carlos Silva
Jarrod Washburn

Catchers:
Jaime Burke
Kenji Johjima

Infielders:
Adrian Beltre
Yuni Betancourt
Willie Bloomquist
Miguel Cairo
Jose Lopez
Greg Norton
Richie Sexson

Outfielders:
Raul Ibanez
Charlton Jimerson
Ichiro Suzuki
Brad Wilkerson

The only prediction I don't feel good about is Jimerson over Morse. That could go either way, but if Morse is picked the defense suffers. How do you all think the final cuts will go?

Morrow: MLB or AAA?
Norton, Jimerson, Reed or Morse for the final bench spot(s)?
Dickey or Baek in long relief?

Replacing Vidro + Roster Notes

On Monday Seattle reassigned OF Wladimir Balentien to minor league camp today, along with LHP Jake Woods and C Rob Johnson, meaning none of the three prospects in the poll will make the club out of Spring Training, which leads us to our latest poll:

Which prospect will find their way onto the 25-man roster first?

Jeff Clement - 19%
Wlad Balentien - 77%
Yung-Chi Chen - 2%

I've gotta say I was a bit surprised by the results. Clement seems to be the bigger name, but I think we're onto something here.

Just to take Chen out of the conversation, his only chance at getting on the 25-man roster this year was to absolutely destroy Jose Lopez this spring and he didn't. I don't know how many starting opportunities he'll get with the Mariners, but it's not a bad guess to say this was his first and last (unless injury strikes).

Between Balentien and Clement, who cracks the 25-man roster first? The first thing you must realize is that neither will be on this roster as a reserve, as both are much too talented for that. Maybe so many of you voted for Wlad because he was making a strong case to become Seattle's fourth outfielder, but Seattle wisely chose to give him playing time in Tacoma over a bench role.

One of these guys should find their way into Seattle's starting lineup before long. As most of you know, DH Jose Vidro received a vesting option for the 2009 season in return for waiving his no-trade clause a year ago. Most fans don't want Vidro back after this season, and the consensus is that Seattle management is thinking the same thing. Vidro's option is rumored to vest at 400 at bats or 450 plate appearances, whichever comes first, so Seattle will want to get Vidro out of the starting lineup with plate appearances to spare so he can pinch hit and backup at second and first base.

Vidro could reach the required plate appearances as soon as the end of June or beginning of July as a starter. Seattle should be looking to reserve at least 200-250 plate appearances for Vidro's bench role, so his starting gig could end in mid-to-late May. That gives Clement and Balentien 40 or more games of extra work before a promotion.

The promotion will likely go to the one who is hitting the best and who would fit better in Seattle's lineup. Though I've done some campaigning for Clement this spring, I am beginning to think Seattle would be smarter to promote Balentien when a spot becomes available. Balentien's struggles with recognizing the breaking ball may put Clement's bat slightly ahead, but Balentien would upgrade the team on both sides of the ball. While adding some of the organization's best raw power to the bottom third of the lineup, Balentien would also do Seattle the favor of bumping Raul Ibanez out of the outfield. While Clement would become the new DH after a promotion, Balentien would likely play right field, moving Brad Wilkerson to left and Ibanez to DH; a move that would undoubtedly save quite a few runs.

Promoting Clement to Seattle DH would also force the organization to make an important decision prematurly. Kenji Johjima, Seattle's current and most dependable catcher since Dan Wilson, is due to become a free agent at the end of the season and Seattle has not yet decided whether they want to bring Joh back or let Clement take over. Promoting Clement would take away months of defensive catching development away from him. Clement's defense has been suspect but improved, and making him the full-time DH would likely rule him out as Seattle's 2008 catcher.

In other news:

The bullpen situation remains a mess. Over the past few days Brandon Morrow's stock may have fallen, Mark Lowe and Arthur Rhodes' appears to have risen a touch, while Reitsma doesn't really seem to be in the race anymore. Ryan Rowland-Smith is still looking great.

Who will join J.J. Putz, Sean Green, Eric O'Flaherty and R.A. Dickey? Prospect Insider has apparently learned that Rhodes is a lock as long as he stays healthy, meaning Rowland-Smith will be optioned back to AAA. I don't like the idea of having Rhodes in the 'pen, as I see manager John McLaren using his "veteran presense" over more talented pitchers they way he did with Chris Reitsma and Rick White last season. I'll go into more detail with this when the final cuts are officially announced.

McLaren has yet to decide on how many pitchers he will carry, meaning there are 1-2 spots to be distributed between Morrow, Lowe, Cha-Seung Baek, Reitsma and Rowland-Smith. Morrow and Lowe are obviously the frontrunners here, but pitcher health is certainly making it difficult to predict how the bullpen may shake down.

As far as the bench goes, Miguel Cairo has been given a spot mainly because of his "veteran presence." This shouldn't have come as a surprise since his contract was of the guaranteed variety. I had been saying that he would be on the bench all spring, though I will admit that I was starting to doubt myself as I listened to everyone passionately make their case against him. Do I want him on the bench? No, but his presence won't make or break this team, though Mike Morse and Greg Norton have to be feeling the pressure a little bit.


Sorry if I've missed anything as I just haven't had the time to keep up. Please share any missing info or your thoughts on Jose Vidro's situation, Wlad versus Clement, the bullpen, Cairo's inclusion or anything else Mariner related in the comment section.

Reed on the Block?

Interesting bit from Shannon Drayer today:

Of note, Jeremy Reed went 3 for 3 with a home run. Jeremy having a nice spring so far. The situation for him with the Mariners does not appear to be good as the team would prefer to have another right handed bat on the bench. The news not all bad though as there are a ton of scouts at every game, the B game included. Maybe someone will need what Jeremy can bring to a team.

Shannon doesn't come right out and say that Jeremy Reed is on the trading block, but keep in mind that she is the absolute closest reporter to the team. It seems like a pretty random idea to throw around if there is nothing behind it.

Reed is not out of minor league options, so there is no urgency to trade him. That said, he doesn't have a future with the Mariners after he blew his shot at starting and other fourth outfielder candidates have better suited for the Seattle bench. Who might want Jeremy Reed? It would be tough to go through every team and determine who could use a plus defender with good speed who hits from the left side. Maybe some other site will pick up on this and do the dirty work for me.

Reed could be a solid fallback if rival Oakland fails to bring in a veteran center fielder such as Coco Crisp or Juan Pierre. He has a similar skill set to those two, minus some speed and experience, but costs millions less.

If Boston does deal Crisp to Oakland, could they be interested in Reed as a fourth outfielder? I know they were interested in him as a starter before the 2006 season.

Clark Update 2; Silva Interview

According to MLB Rumors, Tony Clark could be nearing a deal with the San Francisco Giants.

Such a deal would be contradictory to recent Chris Haft speculation. Besides that, Giants GM Brian Sabean recently said, "I don't know that we could marginally improve ourselves with anybody out there," hinting that he was done with the free agent market.

The Giants don't seem to have much of a plan this offseason, so I suppose anything is possible.

The majority of Mariner fans seem to be against a Tony Clark signing, so this could only be good news.

Lately I have been thinking that Brad Wilkerson could be brought in as a backup, not necessarily as a starter, but that is all speculation. I also wonder if Seattle would go after Ryan Klesko. He would be a seemingly pointless addition, like Clark, but if Bill Bavasi is hellbent on adding first base depth from the left side he could look that direction.

Besides the latest rumblings on Tony Clark, MLB Rumors has also just released an interview with new Seattle Mariners pitcher Carlos Silva that may be worth your while.

Bavasi Still Looking for an Ace

posted by Jon

It's been a slow day today, but I decided to poke around and see if I could find anything worth passing along.

KOMO's Shannon Drayer has posted today that Seattle GM Bill Bavasi is still trying to acquire an "elite starter" via trade. (Decent read, check it out)

Nothing too significant in the entry, but encouraging nonetheless. Many fans seem to assume that Bavasi has dropped out of the Bedard race after last week's events, but obviously the talks just stalled and it's back to the drawing board.

Drayer did mention that Cincinnati has seemingly pulled out of the Bedard race, which makes the New York Mets' interest in Johan Santana much more interesting.

Many sources have the Mets as the new favorite to come away with the two-time Cy Young award winner. If they can seal the deal and bring Santana to Shea Stadium then it would appear that Seattle has a better shot at Erik Bedard. The Mariners would be the lone team targeting Bedard at that point and the price could come down just enough to get a deal done. I would expect a final attempt by the Reds, but they have been much more stubborn than Seattle thus far.

The Mets impact is all speculation with a lot of variables, but it seems to add up. Thoughts?

UPDATE (7:02 AM - 1/24) - Prospect Insider's sidebar is saying that the two sides are in a staring contest, as each team is waiting for the other to blink. Churchill mentions than if it doesn't get done this weekend it won't get done at all, so hopefully we'll know once and for all within a week or so.

Jeremy Affeldt, Brad Wilkerson

posted by Dustin

Jon previously blogged here that a move the Mariners could make if Sherrill is traded would be to sign Jeremy Affeldt, a Washington native. Well, that idea was nixed today when it was announced that Affeldt and the Reds have agreed on a 1 year, $3 million deal (with performance bonuses).

He may be used as a end of the rotation starter to begin the year, but if all else fails, he'll be moved to the bullpen where he was exclusively used last season, and successful as well.

---

Rumor has it that the Mariners are interested in Brad Wilkerson. The Red Sox had previously shown some interest, but the lofty demand of 3 years, $21 million should have them thinking otherwise.

Also connected to Wilkerson: Yankees and A's

Wilkerson is 30 years old and is a home hitter. If Jones is dealt, could Wilkerson by a viable option to fill right? Certainly, as long as Boras, Wilkerson's agent, drops the price.

---

Jon's two cents: It's not difficult to connect the dots on this one. I'm almost certain Affledt was holding out for the Mariners, the Bedard deal has supposedly fallen through, so he signed with Cinci.

As far as Wilkerson goes, I don't believe he would be a good option for Seattle, with or without Adam Jones. He's a high strikeout, low defense guy who only got it done in a hitter's haven of a home stadium last season. He's left handed, which is always a plus, but I don't think he'd be the best choice for Seattle, especially if Richie Sexson is in the same lineup.

Wilkerson's price will undoubtedly come down, though, as there has been a backlash against Scott Boras lately. His clients have not been getting the outlandish demands he has been asking for, and I think he may be toning it down a little bit.

If George Sherrill is Traded...

This goes along with the Caffeinated Confines post I did titled If Adam Jones is Traded, Who Replaces Him? Though Adam Jones figures to leave a bigger hole on the Seattle roster, the question is still valid; If George Sherrill is traded, who replaces him?

There is no straight up answer for this question, however, as Sherrill's 2008 Mariners role hasn't been determined. Personally, I would give him a full-time setup role at this point in his career, though I can imagine Bill Bavasi and John McLaren having an "if it ain't broke" approach and leaving him as the team's LOOGY.

If Sherrill was expected to be a full-time setup man it is possible to replace him internally. Having a righty/lefty tandem covering setup duties is a luxury, not a requirement, and Seattle can use their depth among right-handers to fill the void. Besides J.J. Putz, the Mariners will consider six other righties for non-long relief bullpen roles. These guys include Sean Green, Mark Lowe, Brandon Morrow, Kam Mickolio, Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Jon Huber. Bibens-Dirkx is the biggest longshot at this point, but will be given a long look in Spring Training along with Mickolio.

Bill Bavasi has already announced his intentions to make another bad decision, stating that Brandon Morrow will not be given the opportunity to develop as a starter in Tacoma, but will instead be a part of Seattle's bullpen next year if another starter is acquired. Making the best of a bad move, Morrow would benefit from the long relief role. The Mariners would get the most out of him in a late innings role, however, so it will be interesting to see how badly Bavasi and McLaren are willing to hinder Morrow's development as a starter in order to help the team.

My vote would be to give Morrow one of the setup roles, because I think his real future is in the late innings and not as a starter. I would like to see Mark Lowe as the other setup man, but only if he proves to be healthy and effective in Spring Training. If not, Sean Green would be my next choice, though I would be more comfortable using him as a middle reliever.

It may be slightly more difficult to replace Sherrill if Seattle was planning on making him their left-handed specialist again. Eric O'Flaherty would have likely nabbed the role if Sherrill was still there for insurance purposes. O'Flaherty may be capable, but I'd like him to have one more year of middle relief assignments before being forced to face hitters like David Ortiz or Travis Hafner with the game on the line. Ryan Rowland-Smith was actually much better against right-handers last year, so he will not be seriously considered in that role.

I believe that the Seattle Mariners would turn to free agent Jeremy Affeldt.

From a Seattle P-I article titled Mariners' needs simple: Pitching:

...Medical Lake native Jeremy Affeldt said Thursday his agent has talked to the Mariners and is scheduled to do so again in Nashville. Affeldt, 28, was the lefty setup man for Colorado last season -- a role the Mariners have well-covered with George Sherrill...

Here's what I had to say about Affedt a few days before the P-I article was published. The post, Free Agency: Veteran Relief, was a list of my top five veteran relievers the Mariners could bring in to fill the void left by the very ineffective Rick White, Chris Reitsma, John Parrish and others:

5.) Jeremy Affeldt - The only lefty of this list, Affeldt bounced around in different roles with the Kansas City Royals early in his career and didn't find too much success. This past season he landed with the Rockies and posted a career low 3.51 ERA, including a 1.74 ERA in the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field. He was a matchups guy, only logging 59 innings in 75 appearances, but could be on the verge of a breakout season in a bigger role. He's got age on his side (28) and showed that he can get it done against both sides of the plate (3.65 ERA vs. right, 3.27 vs. left) and in the playoffs (1.69 ERA during Colorado's playoff run, his only mistake a solo home run in the NLDS). Affeldt is the biggest gamble on this list, especially since he's only had success in the National League.

Affeldt hasn't pitched nearly as well as George Sherrill, but I think he is the Mariners' best option to fill the role occupied by Sherrill last season. It would also allow Eric O'Flaherty to continue developing away from the pressures of setup and specialist duty. Obviously Affeldt is interested in pitching for his hometown team, and I believe that he would be Seattle's first acquisition announced once George Sherrill is out of the picture.

The biggest obstacle in signing Affeldt would be the money. There have been rumors that he is seeking about $4M annually, an absurd amount of money for a reliever with his credentials. Sherrill will likely make less than a quarter of that salary, even if he takes his case to arbitration. I assume Affeldt's price will come down, as superior relievers such a LaTroy Hawkins ($3.75M) and Luis Vizcaino ($3.5M) have been signed for less this offseason. [Ge-She Je-Aff Br-Mor]

If George Sherrill is included in a trade for Erik Bedard, Jeremy Affeldt will become a Seattle Mariner. You heard it here first.

View other Bleeding Blue and Teal posts about George Sherrill

Cairo? Really?

Not going to go too far into this one, but the Mariners signed veteran utility man Miguel Cairo to a one year deal.

I don't understand this. Willie Bloomquist was all the soft-hitting utility man we needed. While the defense isn't as good, I would have liked Mike Morse to have this roster spot. [Mi-Cai]

Does this mean Jeff Clement starts the year in AAA? It certainly boots some deserving player off of the 25-man. Maybe it means that Clement or Morse is about to get shipped to Baltimore. Purely speculation, though.

Red Sox/Yankees Trading Game

I keep asking myself to stop writing about Johan Santana. It's unlikely that he'll become a Mariner, but he still manages to take up about 15% of my offseason posts. It all comes down to the fact that there is absolutely nothing to write about in baseball between Christmas and New Years, but it's always fun and easy to speculate about the best pitcher in baseball.

I have no idea why the Minnesota Twins are even bothering trying to trade Johan Santana to the Boston Red Sox or New York Yankees.

Everyone knows Boston doesn't need him. They just swept the Colorado Rockies in the World Series last season without him. Boston already has a solid rotation filled with the likes of Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield, not to mention young studs Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz competing for the final spot, so why would they need to deplete their farm system in order to get Johan? Sure, the current Red Sox rotation with the addition of Johan Santana would assure playoff dominance, but the real reason they are persuing Santana is no secret. If Boston didn't get involved, Santana would already be trying on his new Yankee uniform, improving their team dramatically. Ideally Boston would just like to drive up the price so that the Yankees bow out, which almost worked, but I think they would indeed go as far as acquiring Santana just to ensure that the New York Yankees miss their man.

The Yankees do actually need Johan, but they are unwilling to give up the players Minnesota craves. The problem is this: as soon as the Yankees up their offer the Red Sox will do the same, and it appears that Boston can offer better packages. I can seriously see the Twins getting tired of the game and looking elsewhere.

The New York Mets and Seattle Mariners are the other two teams that come to mind still vying for Santana's services. If the Twins' front office truly did get sick of dealing with the Yankees and Red Sox I would think that the New York Mets would be the favorite. They've got some good young players they could send to Minnesota, and it would be a smart move for the Twins to move Johan Santana to the National League so that they wouldn't have to run into him in the playoffs for the next 5-7 years.

It would also be a good move for baseball. The National League already added Dan Haren this offseason, and adding Johan Santana would start restoring the balance of the two leagues. The more dominant pitchers there are in the National League, the more dominant hitters will be required. Currently most of the great pitchers are in the American League, meaning most of the great hitters (especially power hitters) are in the AL as well, but that's not what this post is about.

The point of this post is to bring up the possibility that the Minnesota Twins could give up on Boston and New York and move on to the other teams. If this happens it would be good news for the Mariners, because we've got some good players to offer and might be able to get a deal done with players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Phil Hughes unavailable. The Mariners are still in talks with Minnesota, so who knows what could happen. Jayson Stark mentions that a deal could take weeks, and as Spring Training approaches I could see rookie Minnesota GM panicing and moving Santana to the team who makes it easiest for him. That team could be the Mariners.

Who knows... [Jo-San]

View all Bleeding Blue and Teal posts related to Johan Santana JO-SAN

Kuroda Official, What's Next?

Kuroda to LA; Bedard, Colon and Prior should be on Mariners radar.

New reports have made this sound more "official": Hiroki Kuroda has signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The deal is pending a physical. I'm going to go ahead and believe this report, maybe I'll be wrong. This is the second consecutive offseason that the Dodgers have spurned us by signing one of our "sure thing" targets (Jason Schmidt).

I had been skeptical of all the rumors and reports that Kuroda had chosen the Dodgers, simply because Seattle had much more money on the table. The Mariners were reportedly offering 3 years/$33M and Los Angeles had a supposed offer of 3 years/$30M.

It makes much more sense now, as Kuroda's contract appears to be 3 years/$36-40 million. Depending on what the final figure will be, Kuroda should make $12-13.3M annually. That is simply too much for him, and I am glad the Mariners didn't offer that much. Kuroda is too much of a gamble. Sure, he could end up the greatest Japanese starter in the major leagues, but more than likely he'll become a mediocre or flat out horrible pitcher like the ones who came before him.

This is the second time in recent years that Seattle has offered far to much money to a starter, just to be outbid anyway. Anyone remember Seattle offering a contract that would make Barry Zito the richest pitcher in MLB history, only for him to accept an even bigger contract?

This is a big whiff for the Mariners, but it was simply out of their control. You can't blame Bavasi for this one. If you think he should have offered more than $13M for this guy you are definitely in the minority. Kuroda was a big piece of the Seattle offseason puzzle, but he wasn't going to get Seattle to the playoffs alone. Who's next on the Mariner radar?

I already wrote a post like this when the original Kuroda report came out a couple of days ago, but it was basically a list of available pitchers, a post that has already been overused on this blog. I went ahead and started over:

If I was Bill Bavasi this is where I would take a risk. He's been unable to get Johan Santana and Hiroki Kuroda, so it's time to look outside of the box. The bottom line is that, despite 2007 success, we're not on the fringe this year. We need more than a Carlos Silva. We're going to either contend or not, so I think to look at the pitchers that are either going to dominate or spend the season on the DL.

First up is Erik Bedard, just because he's already been mentioned as Mariners candidate. Bavasi may be tempted to panic and offer too much after the loss of Kuroda, but if he stays patient the price will could down. Keep negotiating, Bill, and we might come out with an alright deal.

Meanwhile, Bavasi needs to be working on other deals. Bedard is enough of an injury risk, but I'd look at two other guys that may be even more of a risk: Bartolo Colon and Mark Prior. If healthy, either of these guys can put up Cy Young caliber seasons. They can also be signed to short contracts. They won't come at a discount, but the one or two year deal still drops them into the "low risk, high reward" category. Seattle hasn't been linked to Colon since mid-November and there has been no reported interest in Prior.

If the Mariners landed Bedard and Colon or Prior they would have a rotation that looked like this (plus 2008 potential):

Erik Bedard (15+ wins, ERA in low 3's if healthy)
Felix Hernandez (15+ wins, ERA around 3.50)
Bartolo Colon/Mark Prior (15+ wins, ERA between 3 and 4 if healthy)
Miguel Batista (10+ wins, ERA between 4.00 and 4.75)
Jarrod Washburn (around 10 wins, ERA in the low-t0-mid 4's)

If healthy, that is as good of a starting rotation as you'll see anywhere. I know it's a big if, but what do the Mariners have left as far as options? Bavasi could be tempted into getting guys like Matt Clement or Jason Jennings, but they are injury risks too. It's take a risk or go young. Either would be alright by me, but we won't contend with two unproven youngsters in the rotation. If we take that risk and both guys get hurt, then we go young anyway! It's a win-win, either we'll contend this season or we'll develop young pitchers. Mr. Bavasi, please get two of these three guys: Erik Bedard, Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon.

It's a better option than anything out there. Please do not bring up Livan Hernandez, because that guy will be eaten alive in the American League (think Jeff Weaver). [HI-KUR BA-COL MA-PRI ER-BED]

SP Option: Mike Mussina

Like I said in my previous post, the rumor mill has been slow for a few days. We haven't heard anything new about targets like Johan Santana or Erik Bedard. If neither of those happen, we may have to look in another direction. If Bedard or Santana were obtained, there would be an attempt to sign them long term as they are both just now entering their prime. But what if they don't work out? Someone is going to have to bridge the gap next season.

The New York Yankees appear all set to go with a young rotation consisting of Wang, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy. That leaves two men out, Kei Igawa, who I've mentioned previously, and Mike Mussina. "Moose" had a tough year in 2007, posting a 5.51 ERA, but he's just one year removed from going 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. Those were numbers similar to his Baltimore days.

Mussina is in the final year of his contract ($11M) and the Yankees would love to move him. He does have no-trade protection, so that makes this deal unlikely. He doesn't want to move, but if he does it's likely going to be to an East Coast team. So far only the Phillies have showed any interest, though the Mariners could make a pitch for him if their pitching situation worsens. The Yankees should be looking for a team to eat his entire salary and throw in a couple mid-level prospects, though it may take more than that in this market. MI-MUS

Another Johan Possibility

Despite the rumor that Johan Santana may not even want to play for Seattle, it's still fun to speculate. I promised myself I wouldn't write about Santana again until news of an actual Mariner offer to the Twins, but I couldn't help myself!

Phil Hughes has been added into the Yankees offer for sure, meaning the Mariners would have to find a way to outdo their offer. How do you do that? Address more of the Twins' needs.

Twins Needs:

1. Major league ready center fielder
2. Starting pitching
3. 2nd base depth
4. Drop a corner outfielder
5. Major league ready 3rd baseman

Adam Jones is unproven but qualifies for number one, same goes for Brandon Morrow and number two. Jose Lopez has the potential to be a top-tier second baseman one day, and the Twins may like him to compete for a job at second, as it appears Alexi Casilla's bat isn't quite ready. Those three have already been covered.

Geoff Baker mentioned the Twins need to clear some space in their outfield that already has Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel locked into the two corner outfield spots and DH. If the Mariners dealt Jones, then they would just so happen to need a corner outfielder, and Craig Monroe could fit in nicely with the Mariners' lineup. Monroe was acquired by the Twins from the Cubs just weeks ago in a move to bolster their lineup, but the more recent acquisition of Delmon Young makes him available. Monroe struggled with the Tigers and Cubs in 2007, but has proved he can be a 25 HR 90 RBI guy. His batting average has been declining since 2004, but he would be a welcome addition, especially as a "throw in" in a potential Santana deal.

That brings us to number five. Who is going to play third base for Minnesota? Theoretically they could put former utility man Cuddyer at third, but they like his strong arm (19 assists) from the outfield and he hasn't logged an inning at third since 2005. The Twins depth chart shows Brian Buscher and Nick Punto at third, but Buscher has just 82 major league at bats (.244) and Nick Punto hit just .210 in 2007. What if the Mariners threw Mike Morse into the equation? Morse has proved he can hit major league pitching, hitting .302 in 291 at bats over 3 seasons, and if versatile in the field. The Mariners starting shortstop for about 1/3 of the 2005 season, Morse could easily be a major league third baseman. Seattle would love to keep Morse but he does not appear to be in the Mariners' immediate plans as a starter.

I would think that a trade addressing five Minnesota needs with four young major league ready players would trump the deals the other teams are offering. Let me remind you that this is all speculation, and there has been no confirmation that Mike Morse or Jose Lopez may be part of a potential deal. However, Bavasi has mentioned that Jose Lopez is on the hot seat, and may be available.

Alright, that's it for November! I'm sure the upcoming Winter Meetings will stir up all kinds of rumors to write about. JO-SAN

Lopez in Santana Package?

Could Jose Lopez be included in a potential Johan Santana offer? First, a recap/update on what's happening with Boston and New York in regards to Johan:

There's been so much said as far as Johan Santana trade rumors that it's hard to tell what's going on sometimes. As of right now, it appears that the Yankees are in the lead with their Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, plus one other pitcher offer. This is still somewhat mind boggling to me, but no other teams are seriously offering much more. The latest is that the Yankees still have Joba Chamberlain on their "untouchable" list, and have added Robinson Cano to it as well. Early speculation pointed to Cano being the key to the trade, but obviously the Yanks are reluctant to let him go (as they should be). On the Red Sox side of things, they are still having a hard time giving the Twins Jacoby Ellsbury or Clay Buchholz. If either one of them were put in the deal, especially Ellsbury, Boston would be the favorite to land Santana. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are still trying to convince Minnesota to take displaced Coco Crisp instead.

No updates for the Mariners, of course. The Twins recently added a new shortstop and corner outfielder in the Garza/Young blockbuster, so Wladimir Balentien is likely out of any proposal (if he ever even made his way into one). So what are the Twins' needs? Center field, obviously, and they're looking for some starting pitching now that Garza is gone and Bonser may be shipped to Tampa Bay in a separate deal (still unlikely. I'm assuming it was either Garza or Bonser). Any other needs? How about second base? Obviously the Twins had some sort of need if they were originally seeking Cano in the Yankee trade, although Cano would be an upgrade over most second basemen. Alexi Casilla may be the Minnesota second baseman of the future, and Nick Punto may have landed there by default for now, but both of them could be upgraded on. Punto hit just .210 in 472 at bats in 2007 while Casilla hit .222 in limited play, showing zero power with a .269 slugging percentage.

So how about sending Adam Jones, Jose Lopez and Brandon Morrow over to the Twins for two-time Cy Young award winner? Adam Jones is no Jacoby Ellsbury and Brandon Morrow may not even be at Phil Hughes' level yet, but this offer could trump Boston's and New York's because it addressing three separate needs for the Twins: pitching, center field and an upgrade (or simply competition) at second base.

Yes, it is way too early to give up on young Jose Lopez. If you've read any previous blogs you may have noticed that I'm certain Yung Chi Chen will give Lopez a ride for his money in Spring Training, but overall he has been very good. The guy went to the All-Star Game! Yet two consecutive second half slides can get you put on the trading block. Having a guy like Chen in your organization, as unproven as he is, gives you the ability to deal someone with much more value like Lopez. Lopez can hit for a decent average, shows some glimpses of power (whenever he gets a fastball on the inner half), is learning to use the whole field and is growing into a standout defender.

I want to stop here and note that I have no sources saying that Jose Lopez may be part of the package, it is purely speculation. It makes sense to me, though. I'd rather keep a former first round pick and a power hitting, left handed catcher in Jeff Clement then a second baseman that has shown he can be very solid, but has no speed and is slowly setting a trend for sputtering out. Even a package of Adam Jones, Jose Lopez, Brandon Morrow and Ryan Feierabend would work. Feierabend has had enough solid outings as a major leaguer to garner some interest, but in truth may never escape the back end of the rotation.

If the Seattle Mariners manage to defy the odds and make a deal work, don't be surprised if Jose Lopez is a selling point. Dayne Perry mentions that the Mariners may not have as much to offer, but their desperation could lead to a deal. Yung Chi Chen isn't ready to start for a contender? Sign Iguchi! I'm slowly getting the impression that Bavasi is feeling the pressure to make something happen, so don't be too surprised if we make a big splash in the coming weeks.

Pshh.. and I was thinking about not writing until something actually happened. It calls to me... JO-SAN JO-LOP

Free Agency: Veteran Relief

The Mariners had a pretty solid bullpen last season, but there was one piece of the puzzle missing. They were lacking a dependable veteran arm down there, and they struggled all season to find one. Rick White (pictured right) was a disaster, Chris Reitsma couldn't stay healthy but blew lead after lead when he was, John Parrish certainly was nothing to brag about and Arthur Rhodes never even pitched in the regular season. At the trade deadline last season GM Bill Bavasi inquired about Al Reyes, Danys Baez and Octavio Dotel, but nothing went through (thankfully). Our young bullpen has another year of experience, but Bavasi would be smart to add another arm via free agency, especially if Brandon Morrow or Ryan Rowland-Smith are lost to the starting rotation or trade.

There hasn't been many rumors surrounding the Mariners and relievers this offseason, most likely because starting pitching is the priority and Bavasi is yet to land one. Here are some options Bavasi might look at once he gets a chance (not including Japanese options):

5.) Jeremy Affeldt - The only lefty of this list, Affeldt bounced around in different roles with the Kansas City Royals early in his career and didn't find too much success. This past season he landed with the Rockies and posted a career low 3.51 ERA, including a 1.74 ERA in the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field. He was a matchups guy, only logging 59 innings in 75 appearances, but could be on the verge of a breakout season in a bigger role. He's got age on his side (28) and showed that he can get it done against both sides of the plate (3.65 ERA vs. right, 3.27 vs. left) and in the playoffs (1.69 ERA during Colorado's playoff run, his only mistake a solo home run in the NLDS). Affeldt is the biggest gamble on this list, especially since he's only had success in the National League.

4.) Mike Timlin - Once upon a time the Mariners traded star rookie Jose Cruz to the Toronto Blue Jays for a couple of pitchers, one of them being Mike Timlin. Timlin had 1 1/2 great seasons with the Mariners before moving on and has been great ever since. Now 41, Timlin may be wearing down slightly, and you can blame the Red Sox for that. During his first four seasons in Boston Timlin pitched in an astonishing 297 games, including 81 in 2005. He pitched in just 50 games during the 2007 season, his lowest amount since 1995. He battled through a strained left oblique and right shoulder tendinitis, but showed he can work through the pain. Timlin posted a 3.42 ERA 2007 and has a career ERA of 3.55. He could be a nice addition with a one-year contract.

3.) Bob Wickman - Wickman would be my number two selection, but it sounds like he may be retiring this offseason. I haven't been able to find a formal announcement, but an article in the East Valley Tribune makes it sound like the 38 year old could be done for good. If he could be coaxed by Bavasi into another season it would be well worth it for the Mariners. He was waived by the Atlanta Braves late last season after blowing some saves in the closer role but was picked up by the Arizona Diamondbacks in September and proved he could still get it done in a setup role, allowing just one earned run in the eight games he pitched for Arizona down the stretch. Overall in 2007 he had a 3.58 ERA in 57 appearances, consistent with his 3.57 career mark. If he is willing to give one more season as a non-closer, it wouldn't be a bad idea for the Mariners to pick him up.

2.) Troy Percival - By the time the Mariners shift their focus to relief, Percival may no longer by available. The 37 year old righty came out of retirement in 2007 for the St. Louis Cardinals, posting a 1.80 ERA in 40 games. He is not the same dominant closer he was for the Angels between 1996 and 2004, but has proved he can still get guys out despite lacking the overpowering fastball he once had.

1.) David Riske - Riske, most recently of the Kansas City Royals, was ranked second by Fox Sports' Dayn Perry among under-the-radar free agents this offseason. He's durable, consistent and has been able to stay relatively healthy. Riske is a power-type pitcher, working mainly off of a fastball/splitter combination and can handle both sides of the plate. He had a 2.45 ERA last season for the Royals and boasts a career 3.40 mark. He's only 31 and could be signed to a multi-year contract.

Miguel Cabrera as a Mariner?

Part 1: Angels Gearing Up for Big Season
The Mariners should be desperate to make a big move this offseason. Nothing was planned, but unless Bavasi makes something happen the Mariners will need devine intervention to compete with the Angels. The Angels were damn good last season, sporting the 3rd best record in all of baseball. As if that wasn't good enough GM Tim Reagins went out and got starter Jon Garland from the White Sox, strengthening an area that wasn't even a concern. Days later they added free agent center fielder Torii Hunter in another surprise move. A GM makes two moves that no one expected, that can only mean they're planning something huge. I already mentioned how these moves get them set to acquire Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins, but if that doesn't pan out they have one hell of a backup plan: long time target Miguel Tejada. Either of these guys would transform the Angels into the best offense in the league. Here's how the Angels lineup could look by the end of the offseason:

Chone Figgins
Gary Matthews
Miguel Tejada (BAL) or Miguel Cabrera (FLA)
Vladimir Guerrero
Garret Anderson
Torii Hunter
Kotchman, Morales, McPherson, Wood (whoever doesn't get traded)
Mike Napoli
Macier Izturis

The beauty of this lineup is the defensive flexibility. If Tejada comes in he'd play either 3B or SS, if Cabrera comes he'd play 3B or 1B. Luckily Figgins and Izturis can play pretty much around the infield. Since I do not follow the Angels closely it's hard for me to speculate on who would round out the lineup at 1B or 3B (depending on which Miguel is brought in) and catcher. No matter what, this is a lineup you don't want to mess around with. How does the Mariners' lineup stack up? It doesn't. How does the Mariner' starting rotation stack up? Not well. The Angels should have a rotation that goes something like this:

John Lackey (19-9, 3.01 ERA in 33 starts)
Kelvim Escobar (18-7, 3.40 ERA in 30 starts)
Jered Weaver (13-7, 3.91 ERA in 28 starts)
Jon Garland (10-13, 4.23 ERA in 32 starts)
After that it is unclear, as Ervin Santana is a definite trade candidate. But just those first four are impressive enough to compete for the best rotation in the league. Their bullpen isn't so bad, either.

Part 2: A Big Idea (Prevention and Defense)
So what can Bavasi do to keep up? He'd have to start big and go bigger. Like I said, he wasn't planning on changing much, and that was somewhat acceptable before Reagins starting shaking things up. If Bavasi wants the Mariners to compete in 2008, he'd have to make some moves outside of his comfort zone, and outside of the fans' comfort zone as well. The best thing he could do would be to sweep in and steal Miguel Cabrera away from the Angels in a blockbuster move.

Mariners Get:
SP Dontrelle Willis
3B/1B Miguel Cabrera

Marlins Get:
OF Adam Jones
P Brandon Morrow
2B Jose Lopez
Cash

Ok, now you've got your big bat and middle/back of the rotation guy. The next move would be to drop Sexson and add your top of the rotation guy.

Mariners Get:
SP Erik Beddard
OF Jay Payton

Orioles Get:
1B Richie Sexson
OF Wladimir Balentien
RP Eric O'Flaherty
$8 million

Now you have a starting rotation that looks like this:

Erik Bedard
Felix Hernandez
Dontrelle Willis
Miguel Batista
Jarrod Washburn

And a starting lineup that looks something like this:

Ichiro Suzuki, CF
Jose Vidro, DH
Raul Ibanez, LF
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Jay Payton, RF
Kenji Johjima, C
Yung Chi Chen, 2B
Yuni Betancourt, SS

The rotation would be among the best in baseball and the lineup would do alright. Objections: You can't trade away our future in Adam Jones and Wlad Balentien! You're trading future for future here. Miguel Cabrera (24), Erik Beddard (28) and Dontrelle Willis (25) are still early in their careers and could be Mariners for a long time. Adam Jones is 22 and Wlad is 23.

Could this ever happen? Doubtful, I'd give it a 0.1% chance, and both trades would probably require a little more from the Mariners to work. It is possible, however, and I wish Bavasi would look at pulling something like that.

The Seattle/Florida trade would be very difficult to pull off, and was more wishful thinking than speculating, but the Baltimore trade wouldn't be as hard. Say that goes through, now you have an ace and a void in the middle of your lineup. With Sexson out of the way you could deal for a left fielder, first baseman or a DH, or look into the free agent market. Who's available (not named Giambi or Bonds)? How about an outfield of Adam Jones in left, Andruw Jones in center and Ichiro in right? It could be the best defensive outfield in the league, but Andruw Jones isn't the guy you want in the middle of the lineup, and agent Scott Boras won't allow him to be a bargain after a poor showing in 2007. Adam Dunn or Ken Griffey of the Reds could work. Dunn, like Sexson, is a high strikeout guy. He was brought up before, but having both of them in the same lineup would be suicide. If Sexson is dealt, Dunn could be a real option. Griffey would be a fans choice, but he is not as productive as he once was, and his asking price is said to be too high.

What will Bavasi do this offseason? Probably sign Hiroki Kuroda, maybe a veteran reliever as well. What should he do? MAKE SOMETHING HAPPEN, even in a tough market. If you want to win you have to be better than the competition.

If you read all of this, you are amazing! ER-BED