Sunday, November 25, 2007

The Cost of Johan Santana

It has been reported that the Mariners are still in the Johan Santana trade sweepstakes. We all knew it would take a lot to get him, and now we know just how much. The package would start with Adam Jones, Jeff Clement and Brandon Morrow. Santana is in the final year of his current contract, but will be re-signed before his is traded. The Twins offered him 5 years/$93 million, about $18.6 per season and Santana quickly counter-offered with 5 years/$126 million, about $25.2 per season, although I have also seen 7 years/$140 million, about $20 million per season. You can thank Barry Zito and the Giants for that one.

Yes, Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, but is it worth three major league ready former first round picks? You would have a killer one-two combo in Johan and Felix, Wladimir Balentien in right field, and a sudden need to re-sign catcher Kenji Johjima past 2008. There is also always the chance that Jones, Clement and Morrow never live up to their potential, but it's unlikely all of them will flop. Five years down the road will Mariner fans show the same frustration that we have when we saw Derrek Lowe pitching to Jason Varitek? Of course Johan Santana is no Heathcliff Slocumb, but is one win every five days worth three potential stars?

Adam Jones, Jeff Clement and Brandon Morrow are not too much to ask for Johan Santana. The Twins are in a great position to solidify their future, no matter who they trade Santana to. I personally wouldn't make this trade. I would lay low this offseason, sign Kuroda and consider Colon, and then count on the free agent market when it thickens up again in the next couple of seasons. If this trade does go down I won't be too disappointed, however, as Santana really is one of the few starters in this league that can help define a season and get a team to the playoffs.

Sources: Larry LaRue, Ken Rosenthal JO-SAN

Other Johan posts on Bleeding Blue and Teal, click here!


Dustin said...

Why would you consider Colon and not push for Santana? That makes no sense. Santana is far far far superiod to Colon, Colon has had injury and health problems the last few seasons, and is 100% inconsistent.

Anonymous said...

because Colon doesn't exactly cost three top prospects. he's just a one year gamble.

Jackson said...

C'mon...this is a no-brainer for the Mariners...It's mandatory if it's on the table. Which Mariners team is a more viable entity to unseed the Angels? The one with Santana or without? He's 29. He's the best pitcher in the world. Think it might motivate Felix?

You're talking about World Series here...trouble is, will Johan void the no-trade to play in Seattle...

Crossin' my fingers...