Winter League Wrapup

posted by Jon

We've been writing so much about non-Mariner Erik Bedard lately that I thought you might appreciate an update on current Mariners players. Winter league baseball seasons have reached their conclusions and, besides those involved in playoffs, players will be returning home to get some much needed R&R before Spring Training.

(These stats do not include the playoffs.)

Wlad Balentien, OF - 110 AB, .191 BA, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 27 K, 21 BB - It's tough to make a case for him to be Jones' replacement in Seattle after a poor showing in Venezuela, and he would definitely benefit from another half year or so in Tacoma. It is encouraging that his slump didn't effect his walk totals much, as it is always an asset to have a player that can get on base without hitting.

Cesar Jimenez, LHP - 21 G, 23.1 IP, 0.77 ERA, 18 K, 3 BB - Jimenez wasn't able to get it done during his first stint with Seattle in 2006, but could be getting closer to becoming a Mariner mainstay now that he is a full time reliever. He had a solid, albeit injury shortened season last year, posting a 3.51 ERA with Tacoma over 25.2 innings. He averaged over 10 K's per nine against lefties, and could be a viable option should George Sherrill be traded.

Adam Jones, OF - 69 AB, .304 BA, 10 RBI, 16 K - Jones has had a strong showing in limited action this Winter, though he has shown no power whatsoever (0 HR, 3 2B, 2 3B). What effects his trade value more, the .304 batting average or the lack of power?

Jose Lopez, 2B - 117 AB, .316 BA, 5 HR, 17 RBI - These stats are encouraging, but he only drew 5 walks. The Seattle lineup lacks on-base percentage, and most of the players don't seem to be improving much. In regards to the other stats, we know all to well that Lopez' struggles come late in the year, so do we even put any stock in these?

Brandon Morrow, RHP - 7 starts, 36.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 31 K, 8 BB - I've touched on this line before, and the most important stat to notice is the K/BB ratio. Control was Morrow's main weakness during his rookie year, and if this is any indication as to what may come he could be a standout member of the Seattle (or Baltimore) pitching staff. He also averaged more than 5 innings pitched per start, so he seems to be well on his way to stretching that arm out.

Sean White, RHP - 8 starts, 46 IP, 2.54 ERA, 20 K, 8 BB - Had the Mariners decided to go with young guys in the 4 and 5 spots of the rotation White would have been a leading candidate, especially after putting up solid numbers this Winter. White should have a real shot at the long relief role, but I don't know how much of a chance he'll be given to compete as a middle reliever.

Michael Wilson, OF - 119 AB, .303 BA, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 41 Ks - Wilson has some outstanding raw power, but strikeouts continue to be his worst enemy. The Hawaiian Winter League isn't the most talented, and 41 whiffs in 35 games won't get him any closer to the bigs. He should start the year in AA.

Besides Balentien, some other notables who didn't help their stock include Charlton Jimerson (31 Ks in 25 games), Brian LaHair (.200 BA) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (5.34 ERA).

Please visit Mariners Minors for more players.

Read and React: Which Package?

By Dustin Shires

In regards to Erik Bedard, the Mariners had reportedly offered:
Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and George Sherrill

The Orioles want either of these:
Adam Jones, Carlos Triunfel, George Sherrill
or
Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, George Sherrill

Earlier reports speculated that the asking price was:
Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Carlos Triunfel, Chris Tillman

I'll start out and say that I am 100% for the Adam Jones, Carlos Triunfel, and George Sherrill deal. My reasoning? I'm not sold on Adam Jones, and I never have been. George Sherrill is an aging left handed reliever, and we have plenty of youth and some lefties in our bullpen still. Those players are going to develop as they get more time. The kicker for me is Carlos Triunfel.

Now, I'm not 100% sold on Morrow becoming a great starter, but he's MLB ready now. Triunfel won't be ready for the MLB until at least 2010, maybe 2011. Triunfel also has to change positions, since Betancourt is our shortstop now and the front office is in love with him. You can make the case that Triunfel won't be ready until Betancourt is a free agent, but honestly, I don't see Betancourt getting any worse in the next four years. I would rather keep the player that is going to help the big club, and is more proven. Triunfel has plenty of time to underdevelop. The kid can't even buy smokes yet, so he's got a ways to go.

Which deal would you rather see happen and why? (Please tell if you're an Orioles fan or a Mariners fan, or neither)

Anonymous Commenters

Feel free to enter in a quick nickname on the comment forms. It gets a little confusing sometimes!

Baltimore Waiting on Triunfel, Morrow

Jason A. Churchill of Prospect Insider has once again dug up some juicy info on the Erik Bedard trade talks. It seems that the Mariners have offered an Adam Jones/Jeff Clement/George Sherrill package, but Baltimore is waiting for Seattle to cave and offer Jones, Sherrill and either Carlos Triunfel or Brandon Morrow. Also sounds like the Mariners would give up Morrow before Triunfel, a choice I could go either way on at this point.

One league source predicted the Mariners would announce their new acquisition on Thursday. [Er-Bed Br-Mor Ca-Tri]

Dear New Readers,

Just wanted to pass on that we are cruising like never before here on BBT, traffic wise, and I want to say a quick hello to all the new readers on behalf of Chris, Patrick, Dustin and myself. Welcome to the site! Feel free to comment on the posts, because your responses are what make putting hours into some of these posts worthwhile. Once again welcome, and hope to see you back! Tell your friends!

Bedard: A Seattle Perspective

By Dustin Shires

Hey Bleeding Blue and Teal fans, this is my intro-post. I'm a huge, huge Mariners fan hailing from Seattle. I hope you all enjoy what I'll be writing!

Growing up in Seattle, and living 15 minutes from Safeco Field, I've always been able to watch the power hitters that Seattle has had in my lifetime. I have been able to experience the dominance of Ken Griffey Jr., the sweet, consistent swing of Edgar Martinez, the mash of Jay Buhner, and the all-around game of Alex Rodriguez. However, rarely have I been able to look at the rotation and say, "That is our ace!" The first clear-cut ace the Mariners brought in, in my lifetime, is easily Randy Johnson. The man pitched in Kingdome, which is more comparable to a crackerjack box, and absolutely dominated a sturdy AL West. Randy Johnson went a combined 84-30 (W-L) from 1993-1998, while starting 147 games in that span. Also, in 36 of those starts, he went the distance. What am I trying to say? That Johnson was the last starter that the Mariners had that when he took the mound, we expected to win the game, every time. Now, you could make the argument that Freddy Garcia was this ace when he was with Seattle, but I don't think so. I believe Johnson was the last true ace the Mariners staff had.

If this deal goes through, we could be receiving Erik Bedard, an ace. Now am I saying that Bedard compares to Randy Johnson? In no way. However, I am much more comfortable calling Erik Bedard the ace of the Mariners' staff than I am calling King Felix the ace. Bedard put up 13-5 (W-L) in a hitter dominated park, hitter dominated division, heck, in a hitter dominant league. I would love to see what Bedard could do in Safeco, in a less competitive division, in the SafeCave that he would call home.

Trading Jones, Sherrill, Triunfel and Tillman honestly isn't a horrible deal. Jones, although dubbed the "Savior of the Mariners," hasn't lived up to anything, at all. Triunfel has plenty of time to flop, and might not see the MLB until 2010 or 2011, maybe at the earliest. He's only 17 and I'm not comfortable holding onto that when he would have to undergo a position change (he's a shortstop), and he has infinite time to underdevelop. Tillman, although dubbed the best pitching prospect in the organization, hasn't really done anything spectacular either. His numbers don't tell me that he's going to be good. Felix dominated at that level, this guy is struggling to win 40% of his games (which he isn't).

My only objection to the trade would be Sherrill, and it isn't much of an objection, honestly. While he was the most successful of the Mariners relievers, he is 30. We have plenty of younger pitchers to fill our bullpen, and I will highlight the lefties. Ages given are on Opening Day.

• Eric O'Flaherty will be 23.
• Brandon Morrow will be 23.
• Ryan-Rowland Smith will be 25.
• Mark Lowe will be 24.
• Jake Woods will be 26.

While these are only a few of the members of the bullpen, 4 of them will be given Opening Day spots, theirs to lose, and Woods could be a fixture later on in the season. [Er-Bed]

Bottom line, to get Bedard, the future Mariners ace, we wouldn't be giving up too much at all. We would be able to keep Balentien, Morrow and Clement, who are all huge fixtures in the Mariners future. While we might only have 2 years of Bedard, it would be two years of successful pitching, and more consistency from the top of our rotation. If not re-signed, okay cool, we have given Morrow two years to work on becoming a successful starter. I see no problem with this. Who knows, if he is successful in Safeco, maybe he'll want to re-sign?

What Could We Expect from Bedard?

I stumbled across an entry on Fantasy Sports Experience discussing what Seattle could expect from Erik Bedard should a trade happen. Here's a piece of the article:

For the upcoming season, (I don't mean 2-3 years from now, when prospects might finally pan out) I really like this deal for Seattle. Seattle gets a clear number one/ace, to park in front of their young up and coming ace, Felix Hernandez. Bedard is currently stuck in Baltimore, playing in one of the great hitter's ballparks in all of baseball, in front of a disenfranchised fan base, in a clubhouse littered with steroid accusations and an owner who is like George Steinbrenner, only without the talent. Basically the Baltimore Orioles have become the Oakland Raiders without the heart. Oh, and add to that the fact Bedard plays in the A.L East, and pitches most of his games against some of the league's best offenses in New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay. Even the Blue Jays, who have the East's worst offense (outside of Baltimore), has a formidable lineup.

Here are the things that would benefit Bedard if he was traded to Seattle:

1) Bedard goes to a much better pitcher's ballpark, with a much better defense.
2) Bedard would be pitching to much less formidable and deep lineups in the A.L. West.
3) He Joins a team that showed a bunch of moxie, till they fell apart in the middle to end of August.
4) Baltimore's bullpen was awful last season, while the Seattle bullpen was really one of their strengths.
5) He will be matching up against pitchers who aren't the caliber he would be facing in the A.L. East. (A.L East: Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K, Wang, Pettitte, Kazmir, Halladay, Burnett (when he feels like it) Shields---A.L West: Lackey, Weaver, Blanton Millwood?, Gaudin?)
7) On a bad, bad Baltimore team last season, Bedard managed to win 13 games. Pencil him in for about 16-18 wins next season, with his name again, prominently featured as a Cy Young candidate.

Now, there are probably a lot of people saying, "Well with all those things, shouldn't Eric Bedard be a shoe in for the Cy Young and the reincarnation of Sandy Koufax?!?!" Please don't forget, while Bedard is a special talent, he has a propensity to break down late in the season. In 2005 and 2006 he is a combined 3-5 in September. I didn't include September of the 2007 season because he was hurt and didn't pitch. Rotisserie owners probably wouldn't care too much about those numbers, but for people in a head-to-head league, this is smack in the middle of the playoff run. Bottom line is fantasy or reality, Bedard has never thrown more than 200 innings and still has the potential to miss about 2-4 weeks during any given season.

Please visit FSE to read the article in its entirety. [Er-Bed]

So does this change any opinions?

View other Bleeding Blue and Teal posts about Erik Bedard

Bedard: A Baltimore Perspective

By Patrick Whealton

Growing up about a half hour from Baltimore I've always known the Orioles to be synonymous with pitching just as the Ravens are with defense. I hear the tales of legends like Jim Palmer, Mike Flanagan and Scott McGregor. I remember going to ballgames and seeing the likes of Mike Mussina, Scott Erickson and Jimmy Key. But at the turn of the millennium the Orioles organization seemed to lose touch with its identity and shifted the focus to hitting. Now granted, this paradigm shift didn't exactly make for a winning ballclub and has left fans frustrated and management between a rock and a hard place as to the direction of the club. Like Mariner fans have been over the last few years, O's fans are frustrated. The days of seeing the seats at Camden Yards filled to capacity are gone and for me, it's a sad sight. So the question remains, what is the next step the Orioles need to take to ensure that they are competitive in the future?

There really isn't a choice right now between succeeding now or succeeding in the future; the former is not possible, especially not in the AL East where even the Devil Rays have a more intimidating roster. After trading Miguel Tejada to the Astros, it seemed as if management had come to its senses. But the litmus test for their decision making could come very soon depending on what happens with Erik Bedard. Trust me on this, the Orioles trading Bedard would be about the equivalent of the Mariners trading Felix Hernandez. Oriole fans would feel betrayed after years of waiting for the minor leagues to produce a pitching gem that can get the team back to the pitching-first mentality that was successful in the past. But what choice do they have? I mean, Bedard is only under team control for this coming year and 2009 when he will become an unrestricted free agent. You think the O's have a good shot to re-sign him? Neither do I, especially since sporadic reports have mentioned that he wants to play for the Blue Jays since he hails from Canada.

Are the Mariners a good fit for Bedard? In the eyes of the Orioles, sure they are. The two teams don't play each other all that much and the Mariners are in desperate need of another starter and have the prospects to acquire one. At this point, the deal that's been tossed around over the last few days (Jones, Sherrill, Triunfel, Tillman to Charm City & Bedard to the Emerald City) would make sense, regardless of what most O's fans think. But I can't say for sure, as an M's fan, whether I am comfortable with a deal like this just because we are only guaranteed two years of Erik Bedard; although I am leaning towards 'do it' if we can manage to keep Morrow and Balentien which, at first, nobody thought was possible. As for Bedard's injuries, they haven't really been connected so I'm not really worried about that. After all, he was healthy last year up until the last month or so. [Er-Bed]

Either way, I'm going to be seeing a lot of Adam Jones whether it be on TV with the Mariners or up close and personal with the O's.

BBT News: Added Authors, Expansion Plans

Dustin and Patrick of Mariner Nation have been added to Bleeding Blue and Teal, making four to go along with Chris and myself. Some other additions that you will surely be excited about will come later.

The reason for the added authors? We are working on a new site, independant from Blogspot, that will blow this one away. It will start small, but we have big plans.. Some stuff all Mariners fans can be excited about, and can't find on other Mariner blogs.

Any suggestions for the new site?

Adam Jones Pulled from Winter Ball

Adam Jones was pulled from play down in Winter Ball today. The default speculation for a move like this is to say he could be traded in the coming days. Let's see what happens. [Ad-Jon]

Your thoughts?

Poll Results: Gil Meche

Q: Now that a year has passed, do you think the Mariners should have paid Gil Meche $11M+ to stay in Seattle?

Yes - 18 (40%)
No - 27 (60%)
My vote: Yes

I am surprised by these results. The majority of voters are happy with the fact that we let Meche go and signed Carlos Silva to an even richer deal a year later?

Silva's 2007: 32 GS, 202 IP, 1.312 WHIP, 4.19 ERA, 103 ERA+, 3.97 K/9, .287 OBA
Meche's 2007: 34 GS, 216 IP, 1.296 WHIP, 3.67 ERA, 128 ERA+, 6.50 K/9, .263 OBA

Silva's Career (as a starter): 47 W, 45 L, 770.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, .304 OBA
Meche's Career (as a starter): 64 W, 57 L, 1026 IP, 4.43 ERA, .261 OBA

Yes, Meche had been susceptible to injuries in the past, but I thought 2006 was really a turning point for him. He has always had top of the rotation upside, and it looked like he was getting to the point where he was healthy enough to put it all together. I was on the "re-sign Meche at all costs" side of the debate last offseason, as the market was thin and we were striking out with our targets (Zito, Schmidt, Eaton- thankfully). We ended up with Horacio Ramirez and Jeff Weaver.

Meche showed that he can pitch at the top of the rotation last season, putting up good numbers with a horrible team. I don't see how anyone voted 'no', but what good is a poll if everyone agrees? [Ca-Sil]

Your thoughts? DEFEND YOUR VOTE!

Chris Reitsma Brought Back!

Chris Reitsma has re-signed with the Seattle Mariners. Don't panic, this isn't half as bad as it sounds.

In fact, this is probably a good move by the Mariners. While Reitsma made over $1.3M last season, he will make just a fraction of that in 2008.

This is a very low risk minor league signing. If finally healthy Reitsma could provide the veteran presence and stability the Mariners were looking for last season. If not, he sits in AAA as insurance or is released. Think of this like 2007's Arthur Rhodes signing. Didn't hurt us, did it? [Ch-Rei]

I have no problem if he makes the team, as long as he proves healthy and effective in Spring Training. The only fear I have is that he'll take a roster spot from a more deserving youngster, such as Kam Mickolio or Jon Huber. We'll see how it plays out in Spring Training.

If George Sherrill is Traded...

This goes along with the Caffeinated Confines post I did titled If Adam Jones is Traded, Who Replaces Him? Though Adam Jones figures to leave a bigger hole on the Seattle roster, the question is still valid; If George Sherrill is traded, who replaces him?

There is no straight up answer for this question, however, as Sherrill's 2008 Mariners role hasn't been determined. Personally, I would give him a full-time setup role at this point in his career, though I can imagine Bill Bavasi and John McLaren having an "if it ain't broke" approach and leaving him as the team's LOOGY.

If Sherrill was expected to be a full-time setup man it is possible to replace him internally. Having a righty/lefty tandem covering setup duties is a luxury, not a requirement, and Seattle can use their depth among right-handers to fill the void. Besides J.J. Putz, the Mariners will consider six other righties for non-long relief bullpen roles. These guys include Sean Green, Mark Lowe, Brandon Morrow, Kam Mickolio, Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Jon Huber. Bibens-Dirkx is the biggest longshot at this point, but will be given a long look in Spring Training along with Mickolio.

Bill Bavasi has already announced his intentions to make another bad decision, stating that Brandon Morrow will not be given the opportunity to develop as a starter in Tacoma, but will instead be a part of Seattle's bullpen next year if another starter is acquired. Making the best of a bad move, Morrow would benefit from the long relief role. The Mariners would get the most out of him in a late innings role, however, so it will be interesting to see how badly Bavasi and McLaren are willing to hinder Morrow's development as a starter in order to help the team.

My vote would be to give Morrow one of the setup roles, because I think his real future is in the late innings and not as a starter. I would like to see Mark Lowe as the other setup man, but only if he proves to be healthy and effective in Spring Training. If not, Sean Green would be my next choice, though I would be more comfortable using him as a middle reliever.

It may be slightly more difficult to replace Sherrill if Seattle was planning on making him their left-handed specialist again. Eric O'Flaherty would have likely nabbed the role if Sherrill was still there for insurance purposes. O'Flaherty may be capable, but I'd like him to have one more year of middle relief assignments before being forced to face hitters like David Ortiz or Travis Hafner with the game on the line. Ryan Rowland-Smith was actually much better against right-handers last year, so he will not be seriously considered in that role.

I believe that the Seattle Mariners would turn to free agent Jeremy Affeldt.

From a Seattle P-I article titled Mariners' needs simple: Pitching:

...Medical Lake native Jeremy Affeldt said Thursday his agent has talked to the Mariners and is scheduled to do so again in Nashville. Affeldt, 28, was the lefty setup man for Colorado last season -- a role the Mariners have well-covered with George Sherrill...

Here's what I had to say about Affedt a few days before the P-I article was published. The post, Free Agency: Veteran Relief, was a list of my top five veteran relievers the Mariners could bring in to fill the void left by the very ineffective Rick White, Chris Reitsma, John Parrish and others:

5.) Jeremy Affeldt - The only lefty of this list, Affeldt bounced around in different roles with the Kansas City Royals early in his career and didn't find too much success. This past season he landed with the Rockies and posted a career low 3.51 ERA, including a 1.74 ERA in the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field. He was a matchups guy, only logging 59 innings in 75 appearances, but could be on the verge of a breakout season in a bigger role. He's got age on his side (28) and showed that he can get it done against both sides of the plate (3.65 ERA vs. right, 3.27 vs. left) and in the playoffs (1.69 ERA during Colorado's playoff run, his only mistake a solo home run in the NLDS). Affeldt is the biggest gamble on this list, especially since he's only had success in the National League.

Affeldt hasn't pitched nearly as well as George Sherrill, but I think he is the Mariners' best option to fill the role occupied by Sherrill last season. It would also allow Eric O'Flaherty to continue developing away from the pressures of setup and specialist duty. Obviously Affeldt is interested in pitching for his hometown team, and I believe that he would be Seattle's first acquisition announced once George Sherrill is out of the picture.

The biggest obstacle in signing Affeldt would be the money. There have been rumors that he is seeking about $4M annually, an absurd amount of money for a reliever with his credentials. Sherrill will likely make less than a quarter of that salary, even if he takes his case to arbitration. I assume Affeldt's price will come down, as superior relievers such a LaTroy Hawkins ($3.75M) and Luis Vizcaino ($3.5M) have been signed for less this offseason. [Ge-She Je-Aff Br-Mor]

If George Sherrill is included in a trade for Erik Bedard, Jeremy Affeldt will become a Seattle Mariner. You heard it here first.

View other Bleeding Blue and Teal posts about George Sherrill

Bedard to Mariners Deal Soon?

Orioles guru and Fox Sports reporter Ken Rosenthal has another great batch of rumors, starting off with the Baltimore/Seattle talks regarding ace Erik Bedard.

Rosenthal and others believe that Chris Tillman could be the player that gets the deal done. He also mentions Adam Jones, obviously, along with Carlos Triunfel and George Sherrill.

I don't want to part with Sherrill. I really don't want to lose Triunfel. At this point, however, I would be ok with a deal that included three or all of the above listed players. At least we get to keep Jeff Clement, Wladimir Balentien and Brandon Morrow, which didn't seem like a possibility early on in the talks.

Tillman and Triunfel are awfully good, but they are both teenagers and the Mariners could be just one good draft and one international signing away from replacing them. You never know how the young guys will develop, and I would not hate Bavasi for making this move. I am still somewhat against it, but it is his job to make moves to win, not to build for the future.

I'm actually a little bit excited. It's tough to lose the players that we've been calling "the future of the Seattle Mariners baseball franchise" for the past few years, but it could be really fun to have two Cy Young candidates at the top of our rotation. [Er-Bed]

Cairo? Really?

Not going to go too far into this one, but the Mariners signed veteran utility man Miguel Cairo to a one year deal.

I don't understand this. Willie Bloomquist was all the soft-hitting utility man we needed. While the defense isn't as good, I would have liked Mike Morse to have this roster spot. [Mi-Cai]

Does this mean Jeff Clement starts the year in AAA? It certainly boots some deserving player off of the 25-man. Maybe it means that Clement or Morse is about to get shipped to Baltimore. Purely speculation, though.

New Bedard Developments

Today we finally have some new developments on the Seattle/Baltimore trade talks regarding Erik Bedard.

Jason Churchill's Prospect Insider is reporting that the Mariners and Orioles could be close on a deal including Adam Jones, Carlos Triunfel and George Sherrill.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is reporting that Seattle would be willing to offer Adam Jones, Jeff Clement and Matt Tuiasosopo, but speculates that Baltimore could have their eyes on some combination of Tony Bulter, Chris Tillman and Carlos Triunfel to go along with Jones.

My reaction: When I first read the Prospect Insider report I was a little frustrated with the inclusion of Triunfel's name. He is the best young talent we have, even more-so than Jones, Clement and Balentien. I had actually written this post several times over expressing how I felt about it, but I couldn't get the words down properly.

Now I've calmed down a little, and I can understand why the Mariners may be willing to part with Triunfel. He's so young and raw, and no matter how great he is now it's always impossible to predict where a prospect might be five years down the road. Truinfel won't be major league ready until 2010 at the very earliest, and a lot could happen between now and then. He could get injured, he could drop off slightly, the Mariners could sign another young international stud by then; it's hard to drop out of trade for one of the best starters available on the basis of one young star and all the variables he carries with him. That said, it is tough for me to cope with losing Jones and Triunfel in the same trade.

You already know my stance on George Sherrill. Yes, the Mariners have very good depth in their bullpen, but most of it is right handed. In fact, Seattle's only three major league ready lefties appear to be Sherrill, Eric O'Flaherty and Ryan Rowland Smith.

As far as Rosenthal goes, I wouldn't mind a bit if Tui was part of the package, but I would probably lose it if Jones and Clement left in the same deal. You all know how I feel about Clement, and how I think he could contribute offensively in the future.

I wouldn't be opposed to giving up one of Butler and Tillman, but I would honestly rather give up Brandon Morrow instead. The reason is that Morrow will be placed in the bullpen if Bedard is acquired without him. If this happens, Morrow increases his chances of becoming a career reliever, and isn't as valuable to us. In my ideal world I would offer a package of Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Matt Tuiasosopo, possible another if required, and allow Butler and Tillman to continue to grow as starters in the minor leagues. I don't know if Bavasi will rethink his stance on Morrow at this point.

Alright, there you have it. A little sloppy, but I have other things on my mind tonight. What would you realistically offer for Bedard if you were Bavasi? [Er-Bed Ca-Tri]

Clement vs. Johnson vs. Moore

From from an anonymous reader in the Wake Up Call: Ian Snell, Edwin Jackson comment section:

On a side note I liked the piece you did on jones vs. Balentien, and would like to see one on Clement vs. Rob johnson vs. Adam Moore. Just an idea, thanks for all the great posts.

Ask and you shall receive.

Jeff Clement, Rob Johnson and Adam Moore are the top three catching prospects in the Mariners organization, but not necessarily in that order. You all know Clement and have heard of Johnson, but Moore may be a bit of a mystery to you. Hopefully this will have you well acquainted with all three.

The golden boy of the trio, Jeff Clement was taken with the third overall pick in the 2005 draft ahead of Troy Tulowitski, Ryan Zimmerman, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Braun. If not from the extensive coverage directed towards him following the draft, you may know Clement by his memorable home runs during his September callup last season, or the reoccurring mention of his name in trade rumors this offseason.

Clement was an offense first catcher when we drafted him, and he still is today. My jaw dropped the first time I ever watched him hit, because his left handed swing seemed so perfect to me; a natural uppercut that is balanced, quick and powerful. His strong wrists bring the bat through the zone as fast as anyone, causing the ball to explode off his bat. Clement possesses the swing of an ideal power hitter, crushing the ball without over exerting himself.

Besides a balanced swing with robotic consistency, Clement brings more to the table offensively. Early on there were concerns that he had trouble with the outside pitch, but like most other minor leaguers Clement has worked on going the other way and has been able to do it with power. Though he's not a high strikeout guy the way Adam Jones is, he continues to cut down on the whiffs and has been drawing more walks.

Offense first, yes, but Clement is no slouch defensively. Everyone seems to think that Clement would be better off as a DH or first baseman, for different reasons. The only reason Clement should be moved from catcher is to prolong his career the way Craig Biggio did years ago. A common practice in today's game, Cleveland's Victor Martinez is in the process now. Many have speculated a position change for Clement for this reason, but readers misconstrue the reasoning and believe that he is an incapable catcher. Clement is certainly more valuable as a catcher, as you'll be hard pressed to find a backstop with his upside, especially from the left side of the plate. I detailed this in post titled Jones/Clement Value back in November.

He's no Pudge, but he is an adequate defender. There have been concerns about his game-calling and receiving abilities, but he has grow by leaps and bounds defensively since being drafted, a process interrupted by injuries and slowed by platooning. More time in AAA would serve him well, but his bat is major league ready so he may have to learn on the fly. Dan Wilson and Kenji Johjima have spoiled Mariners fans with superb defense, making an average catcher like Clement seem bad. I believe he should take up first base at some point in his career, but there shouldn't be any rush. He has healthy knees and is just 24 years old.

Rob Johnson is about the opposite of Jeff Clement. The two have split time in AAA between catcher and DH, showing off different skill sets. If the two could be melded into one, you would have the perfect catching specimen. Johnson has less offense, more defense and more speed than his power hitting teammate.

Tacoma's team captain last year, Johnson can call a good game, block tough pitches and is nimble behind the plate. He was drafted as a defensive catcher with some offensive upside, but he has yet to break out as a hitter. He still has the makings of a starting catcher, but will have to compete for every job he gets in the majors. Right now he projects to be an average major league hitter, hitting in the bottom third of the order. The power could still come, but for now he is predominately a singles hitter, muscling out the occasional home run while hitting few doubles.

It's always nice to get 5-10 stolen bases out of your catcher. Speed in a backstop is a rare quality, and I'm sure it will only help Johnson secure major league jobs in the future.

Johnson, also 24 years of age, may not see regular playing time with the Mariners under their current plan. He has been brought up in trade talks this offseason, as the front office knows they have decent depth at the position. If Seattle chooses not to re-sign Kenji Johjima and Jeff Clement is traded or moved to first base, however, Johnson could stumble upon a starting role. In this situation, I would only expect him to be in Seattle's plans long enough to allow Adam Moore to develop.

Adam Moore, Seattle's second best catching prospect, was drafted in 2006 and is 23 years old. Fairly new to the organization and unknown to most Mariners fans, he projects to be slightly above average defensively and slightly more above average offensively, but doesn't stand out on either side of the ball the way Johnson and Clement do.

Taking a quick look at the stat sheet, it is easy to be impressed by Moore's 2007 numbers. He hit .307 with 22 home runs and 102 RBIs in 433 at bats for High Desert. Some great stats, but keep in mind that he was playing his home games in the most hitter friendly ballpark of the very offensive California League. I've seen him compared to Michael Barrett offensively, and we should be able to better tell where he stands after next season.

I don't know a ton about him defensively. I know he calls a good game, is popular among the pitchers and that he has a decent arm, projecting right in the middle of Clement and Johnson.

A history of knee injuries could cause Moore to eventually abandon the position, but the jury is still out. He is apparently capable at both third and first, but would prefer to remain behind the plate.

MLB offensive expectations (once established): Jeff Clement - A 2002 Mike Piazza (33 HR - .280/.359/.544) or 1977 Johnny Bench (31 HR - .275/.348/.540) at his best, while a 2004 Victor Martinez (23 HR - .283/.359/.492) with a couple more home runs would be nice as well. Many have speculated Clement could hit 35 home runs at some point, especially if he is moved to first base. Expect a 1999 Jason Varitek season if he doesn't live up to his potential (20 HR - .269/.330/.482), which is still above average for a catcher. This guy is going to be a stud offensively. He should have Jason Varitek caliber defense if he remains at catcher.

Adam Moore - A 2004 Ramon Hernandez (18 HR - .276/.341/.477) or a 2005 Michael Barrett (16 HR - .276/.345/.479). That would make him a very solid major league catcher, though not on the same level as Clement. 20 home runs may be too much to ask from him. He has a nice looking swing, but it doesn't seem to generate a lot of power.

Rob Johnson - A 1999 Dan Wilson (7 HR - .266/.315/.382) or 2007 Yorvit Torrealba (8 HR - .255/.323/.376). He may be able to hit around .270 or so, but I wouldn't expect a ton out of Johnson. His real value is as a defender.

My ideal scenario: I would love to see Clement catch and work on his infield skills, shifting to first base once Moore is ready. Johnson could be the backup, but there is a good shot he is traded or let go if there is no spot for him.

A crazy idea: Obviously it is doubtful, but the Mariners could end up with all three of these guys in the same starting lineup, let alone on the same team. Clement and Moore could play the corners or DH, while Johnson is the starting catcher. Either Clement or Moore could be the backup catcher, preserving their value as a backstop. If Johnson's bat develops, he could be rested at DH. Don't hold your breath, though. [Je-Cle Ro-Joh Ad-Moo]

There you go, Mr. Anonymous Commenter. I hope that is what you were looking for.

View other Bleeding Blue and Teal posts related to Jeff Clement

Wake Up Call: Ian Snell, Edwin Jackson

Sunday Morning Tidbits

Beaver County Times:

Seattle has interest in trading for Snell and would likely offer catching prospect Jeff Clement as part of a package. However, the Pirates almost certainly would hold out for outfield prospect Adam Jones, considered a potential superstar, in any deal.

This is interesting because it seems to contradict a Bucco Blog post from the 3rd that said, "Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neal Huntington passed on a Jones-Morrow-Sherrill deal for Snell in December." Like any rumor this offseason, no one knows what is actually going on, not even Bavasi and Huntington.

I think I would rather package Adam Jones with some lower prospects (if that is enough), than send Jeff Clement and one or two of our better prospects like Morrow, Balentien or Triunfel.

Just to further complicate things, I thought I'd throw in this bit from MLB Rumors:

The Mariners approached the Pirates about Ian Snell, but quickly backed off when they asked for Adam Jones in return

...

St. Petersburg Times:

The Edwin Jackson to Seattle rumors won't die, but there still seems to be little substance to the idea of sending him to the Mariners. ... The Rays are still in search of a left-handed reliever, but there has been little recent progress on that front.

The two statements are meant to be separate, but can we help the Rays out with a southpaw reliever? Would everyone freak out if we traded George Sherril for Edwin Jackson straight up? Sounds almost like the Soriano/Ramirez deal of a year ago.

Most of our bullpen depth is right handed, except for Sherrill, Eric O'Flaherty and Ryan Rowland-Smith. Sherrill and O'Flaherty figure to play major roles, and I doubt Tampa Bay would be looking to acquire RRS. [Ia-Sne Ed-Jac]

Now that Broussard is gone, who could we offer the Rays? More importantly, shouldn't the signing of Carlos Silva negate the need for Edwin Jackson?

Who Replaces Jones?

There has been a lot of discussion and speculation about who would take Adam Jones' lineup spot should he be traded, but there hasn't been much published on the subject. I went ahead and posted my opinion a few hours ago over on Caffeinated Confines.

Check it out! [Ad-Jon]


Link: If Adam Jones is Traded, Who Replaces Him?

Ruling Out Bartolo Colon

I've brought up Bartolo Colon's name several time this offseason as a guy the Mariners should try to sign. The offseason is entering it's final stages and I think it's time to rule Colon out as part of Seattle's 2008 rotation.

3 reasons:

1. He is looking for $8-9M guaranteed annually and a multiyear deal, according to Bob Dutton.


2. Impacto Deportivo reports that Colon has yet to hit 90 MPH in winter ball.


3. There has been no official reports of any type of negotiations between Colon and the Mariners since November.

The third is probably the most obvious reason that Colon will not land in Seattle, but since when have I needed an official report to speculate? The fact that Colon has yet to hit 90 on the radar guns indicates he may not be fully recovered or may be pitching with pain. He has put together some nice outings down there, but I would be reluctant to sign him until I knew his arm strength was where it should be. Even if it was, signing him to a multiyear contract would be risky. I can deal with $8-9M, considering I predicted about $10M earlier this offseason, but he is no longer low risk if you can't dump him after 2008. I can't see anyone signing him to more than a single season, at least until he shows off a few low-to-mid 90s heaters.

I don't see the Mariners going after Colon. He could be great, but if Mariners are going to add another starter it's going to be (or at least should be) someone proven and healthier.

Besides, his offseason conditioning hasn't been going so well, as you can see from the picture below.

Just kidding.